To some citizens, the landscape of Oyo State is undergoing visible transformation. New road networks weave through communities, while some other efforts of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) administration in the state may stand as testament to the legacy of Governor Seyi Makinde.
However, the steel and concrete of these projects are underpinned by a less visible but increasingly alarming foundation: a precipitous and seemingly incessant accumulation of debt. This borrowing spree, which has become the hallmark of the administration, is now prompting serious questions about fiscal sustainability, intergenerational equity, and the very definition of responsible governance, framing the 2027 election as a critical choice between the candidate of a profligate administration intent on mindless borrowing and an astute management and financial expert.
Upon taking office in 2019, Makinde inherited a debt of approximately ₦150 billion. Within a few short years of taking over, that figure ballooned to over ₦350 billion, representing a staggering increase of more than 130 percent. While the government defends this strategy as “strategic borrowing” necessary to bridge a vast infrastructural deficit, a closer examination reveals a pattern that leans less on strategy and more on a relentless leveraging of the state’s future. The administration’s singular focus on capital projects, while commendable in its ambition, appears to be financed by mortgaging the financial flexibility of future administrations and generations of taxpayers. The argument that debt is a tool for development is economically sound in principle, but its virtue is entirely contingent on its management, sustainability, and the tangible returns on investment. On these metrics, growing scepticism suggests the administration is failing.
The core of the criticism lies not in the act of borrowing itself, but in its pace, scale, and the potential misalignment with revenue-generating outcomes. The state’s debt service-to-revenue ratio is becoming dangerously stretched. A significant and growing portion of the state’s monthly federal allocation and its Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), which has seen a rise to over ₦4.5 billion, is now pre-committed to servicing existing debts. This creates a fiscal straitjacket, effectively siphoning funds away from critical recurring expenditures like education, healthcare, and public sector wages to pay interest on loans taken for new projects. The government is building new roads while potentially jeopardising its ability to maintain them or pay the teachers and health workers who give the state its human capital. This is the paradox of indebtedness: today’s monuments can become tomorrow’s burdens.
Furthermore, there is a palpable concern regarding the efficiency and transparency of the deployment of these borrowed funds. The public is presented with a simple equation: massive debt equals massive projects. However, the lack of granular, accessible data on the cost-benefit analysis for each project financed by debt fuels scepticism. Are the projects being executed at optimal value? Are the loans tied to projects with clear, measurable economic returns that will boost the state’s IGR sufficiently to offset the debt? Or is the state, in its rush to build a legacy, financing white elephants and overpriced contracts? The incessant borrowing, without a concomitant and overwhelming demonstration of prudence, creates a perception of a government spending with abandon, secure in the knowledge that the repayment will be a problem for another day and another leader.
It is within this context of fiscal apprehension that the political narrative for 2027 is crystallizing. The very weakness of the Makinde administration — its perceived profligacy and lack of nuanced financial management — becomes the greatest strength of the potential challenger to Makinde or the PDP candidate in the 2027 governorship election.
The prospect of Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the current Minister of Power and former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, is no longer just a political alternative; it is an antidote to the current fiscal anxiety. Adelabu’s entire career is a repudiation of the current model. Where the present administration is defined by borrowing, Adelabu’s profile is defined by management.
The case for an Adelabu governorship is built on the premise of competent, technical stewardship. His resume — a former Senior Consultant and Audit Manager in one of World’s biggest Accounting firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers, a former West Africa Regional Finance General Manager in Standard Chartered Bank, former Executive Director, Group Chief Financial Officer in Nigeria’s largest bank, First Bank and former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria. In addition, a fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria, a fellow of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria and a National Honouree as Officer of the Order of the Federal Republic (OFR). He’s also a renown and distinguished private sector investor with strings of visible businesses in Real Estate, Hospitality, Agriculture and Financial Securities providing direct and indirect employment to thousands of the state indigenes. And lately the best performing Minister of Power in two years with overwhelming testimonies of unprecedented improvement in electricity supply in Nigeria’s history — suggests a leader who would approach the state’s finances with the discipline of a risk-assessing banker, not the zeal of a legacy-seeking out going governor. The critique of Makinde’s incessant borrowing naturally leads to the promise of an Adelabu administration focused on debt optimization, not just acquisition. This would involve restructuring the existing expensive debt portfolio to secure better terms, a complex financial manoeuvre far beyond the scope of a politician but well within the wheelhouse of a central banker.
Moreover, the solution would shift from borrowing to a relentless focus on radical revenue engineering. The goal would be to move beyond merely improving IGR collection to fundamentally expanding the state’s economic base through sophisticated public-private partnerships, attracting large-scale investment into agro processing and solid minerals, and creating a business-friendly environment that grows the pie rather than just slicing it differently. Adelabu’s national network and experience, particularly in the critical power sector, could be leveraged to bring strategic federal projects and private sector investments to Oyo State, creating jobs and broadening the tax base organically.
The 2027 election is therefore shaping up to be a fundamental referendum on economic philosophy. Makinde will campaign for his candidate on the tangible evidence of his projects, asking to be judged on the bridges and roads he has built, even if they are paid for with debt that will long outlast his tenure. In contrast, an Adelabu campaign would frame the choice around consolidation and solvency. It would be a promise to secure the state’s financial future, to build not with concrete alone but with a solid balance sheet. The state’s indebtedness is Makinde’s defining legacy. The 2027 election will determine whether the people of the state want to continue building upon it or elect a financial expert to finally manage it.
Isaac is public affairs analyst based in Ibadan, the Oyo State
