This is the concluding part of a two part article. The first part was published on Monday 1 July 2024. The article is simply a clarion call on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to declear a state of economic emergency and take far reaching actions to rescue the economy from total collapse; and launch Nigeria on the path of sustainable economic prosperity.
6. Five Years Moratorium on Employment into Federal Civil Service:
Nigeria’s civil services at the three tiers of government are over bloated. Thousands of idle workers fill ministries, departments and agencies of government. Though they get paid monthly, their contributions are minimal. In a given month, a typical civil servant can hardly point to what value he or she has brought into the service. Which explains why an Abuja civil servant-turned-London-taxi-driver is still collecting salaries while not on study leave or leave of absence. To be generous, the civil service does not require a third of its current workforce to function at the level it is functioning. So, productivity is low, and motivation is equally low. Since there is general economic crisis at the moment, and many homes are experiencing untold hardship, one is not advocating for a downsizing but a five year moratorium on employment to get the system to correct itself. During this period, agencies that are short staffed can get resourced from the obviously over bloated ones. This way, the civil service can have near optimum number of employees as well as reduces the amount spent on running the service. A huge dose of our yearly revenue is expended on civil servants as recurrent expenditures with little left to develop the country.
7. Pay Living Wage
It is common knowledge that federal civil servants are poorly paid. It is worse at the state and local government levels. But once the standard is set at the centre, states will take a cue. We have needlessly been on the minimum wage negotiation table for far too long. At today’s economic reality, any amount below N100,000 a month for the least paid worker in the civil service is unacceptable. The question is not whether the government can afford to pay the amount; it is more about whether an employee can afford to live below N100,000 a month and still be able to go to work.
There is a correlation between productivity and wages even in the civil service, which explains my earlier point about placing a moratorium on employment. With natural attrition in the service, government is left with fewer workers to cater for. These workers need to be better remunerated since they are already in paid employment. In arriving at affordable and meaningful wage, just look at five broad areas (accommodation, health care, transportation, feeding, and general maintenance services) and it will be clear that anything less than N100,000 is still hyper-poverty wage. It is true that increased wages in the system will cause inflation, which, admittedly, is very high at the moment. Conversely, higher purchasing power is also known to be a major contributor to economic activity through increased demand and consumption. These will cause increased productivity and employment; which also leads to increase in government revenue.
8. Implement the White Paper on Stephen Oronsaye Report
REFLECTIONS! was over the moon when in March government let it be known that the White Paper on the Stephen Oronsaye Report would soon be implemented. Last year, this column made a strong case for the White Paper to be implemented; but the joy of the March 2024 announcement has been short-lived as nothing concrete has happened since then. In fact, last week the President technically repudiated the report when he set up a Ministry for Livestock. It is inconceivable that the government would want to multiply the number of ministries, ministers, permanent secretaries, directors and down to cleaners in a regime of economic crisis of this magnitude. I hope we will not wake up tomorrow to hear that a Ministry for Poultry and Fisheries has also been created. To think that you will solve problems by bureaucracy is untrue. The appropriate department in the ministry of agriculture would have dealt with whatever problems this ministry wants to address. I will buttress my argument.
For many years, the Niger Delta region that produces nearly all the crude oil in country was neglected. After much agitations, government decided to address the problem by setting up bodies. First was the Oil Mineral Producing Areas Development Commission (OMPADEC); which has now metamorphosed into the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC); then came the 13 percent derivation (evidently pocketed by thieving governors and their cohorts); layered with the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs; then the Amnesty Program for the Ex-Militants (set up by late President Umar Musa Yar’Adua, this agency was tenured and ought to have wound up over a decade ago but has become a permanent feature!). On top of all these bodies, the Niger Delta remains underdeveloped, its people still decked in poverty (just as people from other parts of the country). Just two years ago, the Host Community Development Trust fund, part of the Petroleum Industry Act was passed into law; still to address the same problem all the aforementioned agencies are suppose to address in the Niger Delta. Shouldn’t we be sufficiently ashamed as a nation that despite the trillions of Naira the Niger Delta has received, abject poverty still walks tall. In my home state of Akwa Ibom, I do not know of any community with portable water; yes, water. The less than 400 kilometres East-West Road has been under construction for nearly twenty-three years now. Just as I am questioning the wisdom in creating a ministry for animals, why still have NDDC in existence when there is a Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs or vice versa? The Oronsaye committee, set up some twelve years ago by the President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration recommended a drastic merger and streamlining of government ministries, departments, and agencies for effective and efficient public administration. But the same forces that prevent this nation from moving forward have ganged up against its implementation; and successive governments keep playing to the gallery.
9. Defend the National Currency:
You cannot leave your nation’s legal tender to the vagaries of forces outside of your control. Forget the preachments of the Bretton Woods Institutions. Read my lips: they don’t mean any third world country well. Before their apologists come after me, I just want to be told of one third-world country that they enabled become a developed economy. None. Unfortunately, leaders of most poor countries do not know this; and they keep implementing anti people policies that continue to push their people to their early deaths. All developed nations defend their currencies; Nigeria should do the same or continue to be poor. Approximately 50 percent of the inflationary pressure in the system is linked to the poor performance of the Naira.
10. Sell the Refineries
With no hesitation, sell all the four national refineries in Port Harcourt (the old and new Alesa Eleme refineries), Warri and Kaduna. Government has proven again and again that it cannot successfully and profitably run commercial entities. Can you imagine the hundreds of millions of dollars expended on the revamp of the newer Port Harcourt refinery since 2021 with promises that it would come on stream in December 2022 with no light in sight? Last week, the presidency, tired of the innumerable postponements of production date, bellyached over the matter. And that is the much it can do. So, sell the damn refineries and cut the losses rather than continue to throw money into it.
11. Increase Crude Oil Production to 1.8mbpd
Nigeria is cash strapped, though government officials’ behaviours belie this reality. And the fastest way to improve revenues for the government is through increase in crude oil production. Thankfully, oil prices have been predictably stable for relatively long time now at just over 80 dollars per barrel. And our Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota has been somewhere around 1.8mbpd. On average, we have a short fall of somewhere around 500kbd, which is really unfortunate for a country in search of money to claw out of poverty and mounting debt. Rather than deal with the myriad of factors militating against our optimal crude oil production and getting the cheap money that oil brings, we prefer resorting to borrowings and printing of the Naira. Sometimes you wonder if our leaders (I am always tempted to call them rulers rather than leaders because the difference between the two words is almost the same as darkness and light!) are positioned to continue to serve interests other than national’s. Put very succinctly, the Tinubu government must do all it can to increase our crude oil production from the abysmally low levels we have experienced in the last few years. Set a 12 month target of pumping more oil into the market. The country has the capacity to produce more than 2 million barrels per day but hovering around 1.3 million barrels daily is not good enough. What are the major bottlenecks in pumping more oil? Oil theft and pipeline damage? Funding challenges? Procurement and contracting issues? Aging infrastructure and facilities? Divestment issues? Restiveness? Point is, government must pragmatically reduce much of these issues in order to bring more oil to the surface for cash. Anything that can be done to get cash to the system in the near future is urgent.
12. Develop Other Mineral Resources
Interestingly, the belly of the country is awash with rich but untapped mineral wealth. Unfortunately, crude oil has numbed our brains so much so that we are unable to think of anything more. Because of cheap oil, successive governments have reduced Nigeria’s economy to a mono product economy (oil and oil only) when we have no less than thirty other minerals in stock just beneath the surface and in virtually all states of the federation. Lazy state governments prefer to carry begging bowls to Abuja monthly for crumbs than help the federal government and the private sector explore and exploit solid material resources in their states in order to take their people out of poverty. I must commend Mr. Dele Alake, the current minister for solid mineral development for the pioneering efforts at attracting investments into the sector. Apart from the stint of Dr. Obiageli Ezekwesili in that ministry, this is the first time serious effort is being made to focus on the sector. The future of oil is in the past; we just need money from that sector as a bridge to the future of green energy and solid minerals.
13. Extend Recapitalisation of Banks by a Year or Two
REFLECTIONS! is not against the bank recapitalization program of the government because it will ensure that banks withstand future financial storms and shocks. However, what needs to happen is that, given the huge amounts required to recapitalize the banks, and the cash crunch the country is facing, the Central Bank needs to give the economy a breather. A 12 to 24 month extension will ensure that the exercise does not crowd out investment funds to the banks whilst other sectors of the economy are starved of capital. This extension becomes even more necessary with the indication by Alhaji Aliko Dangote that his Lagos-based refinery would be listed on the Nigerian Exchange early 2025. If the CBN stays with its recapitalization schedule, there will be little money left in the system for the real sector to borrow. In effect, interest rates will stay above 30 percent for a long time.
14. Fight Corruption
I do not know how loud I need to emphasize this last point. Let me attempt by drawing an analogy. Last week, a friend sent me a 3 minute video clip of the tornado that happened in Tennessee and Kentucky in the United States. Drone footage showed total destruction of Mayfield in Kentucky. As I watched the video, two images kept playing up on my mind. One is a picture of what the end of the world will look like, while the other is the graphic effects of what corruption has done to my beloved country. More than anything else I can think of, corruption has visited the greatest devastation in Nigeria. Lord David Cameron, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, aptly mild or mildly apt when he said matter-of-factly that Nigerians are fantastically corrupt.
Let me tell the President one major reason why he must fight corruption. If you declare the state of economic emergency and carry out all the measures prescribed above without tackling corruption, you will at best achieve a 5 percent success rate. Conversely, if you reduce our national corruption temperature by just 20 degrees (assuming it’s now at 100 degrees centigrade!), you would have doubled the size of our economy in two years; and move several millions of Nigerians out of poverty. Wouldn’t you rather do this and be remembered for good long after you’re gone! Just think about it.
Extra Matter
Local government autonomy
With the last week’s Supreme Court ruling giving local governments autonomy and direct funding from the centre, Nigerians are already counting their chickens before the eggs are hatched! I am not one of them. You only need to look at the just released results of the local government polls in Edo State to know that there will be no autonomy at that level of government. Every local government chairman in Nigeria, whether elected or appointed, is an appointee of the state governor so long as states continue to conduct local government elections. Given the imperial governments that operate at the state level in Nigeria, which local government chairman will have the spine not to do what the governor says he or she should do with the money that goes into the local government account? None. Enough said.
Esiere is a former journalist!
