Opposition politicians have revved up their engine again ahead of the 2027 election. They are busy meeting, engaging in visitations, regrouping, and strategising under various platforms. And recently at a two-day event in Abuja themed, “Strengthening Nigeria’s Democracy: Pathway to Good Governance and Political Integrity”, some of these opposition figures huffed and puffed, upbraiding the present government and disparaging President Bola Tinubu and the governing All Progressives Congress (APC). Some of them, like the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, have taken advantage of various public speaking opportunities to condemn the government’s policy options and decisions but offered little or no alternative course of action.
This is dismaying. During the Second Republic when the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, was the leader of the main opposition party, he would dissect the policies of the National Party of Nigeria government of President Shehu Shagari, cut it down into granular details and offer clear, convincing and actionable alternatives. Awolowo’s interventions provided useful solutions that would have bolstered Nigeria’s economy and enriched our democracy, but unfortunately, that era lasted only four years and three months as the military struck.
President Tinubu has barely spent two years in office. Yet, political opponents have upped the ante in a desperate move to grab power in 2027. The latest move in this direction was the visit last week of the defeated Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate in the 2023 presidential election, Atiku to former President Olusegun Obasanjo at his hilltop residence in Abeokuta, Ogun State. Atiku was in company with former Sokoto State governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, former Cross River State governor Liyel Imoke and Senator Abdul Ningi from Bauchi State, all of the crisis-ridden PDP. Nigeria’s former No. 2 claimed that the meeting had nothing to do with 2027. Anyone who believes him on that will believe anything. There was also New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso, who travelled all the way to Lagos from Kano to confer with former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola to discuss issues believed to be in connection with 2027. Aregbesola is leading the Omoluabi Group in Osun State.
Three sets of opposition groups are discernible at the moment. One group comprises President Tinubu’s opponents in the 2023 election who have refused to see, and perhaps may never see, anything good in the present government, hard as the administration works to reverse the past mistakes and dwindling fortunes of the country. These men contested the last election with the President and were roundly defeated both at the ballot and in court. However, they have continued to carry on as if the 2023 election cycle has not ended. In this group are former Vice President Atiku and former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi. Their depleting rank of supporters, called the Atikulated and Obidents, are in league with them in this cantankerous behaviour.
The second group is made up of some erstwhile APC chieftains who claim to still belong in the party but have constituted themselves into opposition elements within. Bitter and vicious, they include former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi and some others who rightly or wrongly feel entitled to political appointmens and government patronage. Amaechi had detached himself from the APC since he lost out at the APC primary in August 2022.
The last group is composed of former APC leaders who are completely out of the party but now vigorously working against the party’s interests. Aregbesola belongs in this group.
These three groups of opposition figures are working to take over power in 2027. They are aiming at forming a coalition to unseat APC. None has been consummated as of this time.
It is relevant to ask: why are opposition parties in our climes unduly fixated about taking over power? It may be argued that the zero-sum nature of our politics, the winner-takes-all syndrome, is a contributory factor. But then, the role of opposition parties in a democracy is much more crucial. It is critical in determining the level of accountability and acceptability of governing parties as well as the overall quality of a country’s democracy.
In his seminal work on the “Role of Opposition Parties in Developing Democracies”, published in a journal by Democracy Works Foundation, Williams Gumede posits that, ‘opposition parties provide alternative visions, policies, and leaders to the governing party. They scrutinise government decisions, policies, and actions – and play oversight over the executive and the public administration. They defend the voters’ interests – not only their constituencies, but all the country’s voters’.
Indeed, opposition parties’ capacity to show the electorate they are credible alternatives is crucial to the credibility of the democratic system. The strength of the opposition in a democracy plays a key role in the quality of that democracy and, by extension, the effectiveness of the state. Gumede adds that, ‘a democratic system is significantly undermined if the opposition does not offer any credible alternatives to the governing party, is invisible in the public debate or does not have a public profile beyond during elections’.
Although many will reckon that 2027 is still a long time and according to a Yoruba adage, the sun out there can still dry the clothes, nonetheless, it is doubtful if the opposition as currently constituted in Nigeria is capable of ousting the APC in 2027.
This is why I surmise this way: the major opposition parties, the PDP, Labour Party, and, of course, NNPP are neck deep in crisis. They parade fragile leadership with seemingly unending court litigations. Generally, the opposition seems too uncoordinated and lacks focus. Any alliance by such groups can only be fickle and fissiparous. These opposition politicians are being driven by personal ambition, and not the interest of the country.
Also, the matter of power rotation between the North and South over two terms is also an important factor that may work against the opposition. This factor and the machinations over 2027 may have prompted the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George George Akume and APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje to ask the North to wait till 2031 for another shot at power, arguing that President Muhammadu Buhari from the North had done eight years in office and that the South should be allowed to complete its eight years as well.
APC National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru spoke on this seeming emptiness of the disgruntled opposition groups. In an interview with the Nigerian Tribune published on Wednesday, 12 February 2025, he doubted if the opposition parties had what it takes to successfully cobble a merger or form a united front against the APC.
He declared: ‘The question is, for the economic policies of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, what are the alternatives that the opposition has brought out, beyond just planning for the 2027 election. If 2027 comes, what do they want to campaign with, and what alternatives are you giving the people. They don’t have any alternative. The so-called opposition groups are just power-mongers. The only job they have is that they want to access government power for personal aggrandizement without any program or policies for the Nigerian people. I’m not a soothsayer, but they will not be able to merge because all the leading opposition figures are driven by personal ambitions’.
Do I agree with the APC National Secretary? I think so.
Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Media, Publicity and Special Duties
