Nigeria’s crude oil production fell again in August, reversing gains that had pushed the country above its OPEC quota for two consecutive months.
This was against the backdrop of basking in the euphoria of an increased oil output achieved in July.
Fresh figures from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as obtained from the government, showed that Nigeria pumped an average of 1.43 million barrels of crude per day in August, down from 1.507 mbpd in July and 1.505 mbpd in June.
The decline means Nigeria fell about 66,000 barrels per day short of its expected quota of 1.5 mbpd in August. This comes after exceeding the target in both June and July, when production stood slightly above quota levels.
Nigeria’s August performance marks a sharp drop of 73,000 barrels per day from July.
The setback interrupted what the government had described as a major achievement of the President Bola Tinubu administration and a promising recovery, as output had averaged 1.47 mbpd in Q1 and 1.48 mbpd in Q2.
The PUNCH reports that the country’s average crude production met the OPEC quota this year in January, June, and July. January has the highest output with 1.54 mbpd.
Crude production dropped to 1.46 mbpd in February. It worsened in March, falling to 1.40 mbpd. The output rose again in April to 1.48 mbpd and slipped in May to 1.45 mbpd.
But with the increase recorded in June and July, the government said it was set to achieve its ambitious 2 mbpd oil output.
Speaking recently about the Project One Million Barrels Initiative launched in 2024, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, said Nigeria was actively ramping up crude oil production by reactivating dormant fields, fast-tracking regulatory approvals, and enhancing operational efficiencies across the upstream value chain.
Komolafe maintained that the current administration had succeeded in raising oil (crude and condensate) from 1.4 mbpd to 1.7 mbpd.
He said the recent increase in oil production by about 300,000 bpd confirmed the government’s efforts to achieve the ambitious 2 mbpd oil output.
‘With a clear target of increasing production from 1.46 million barrels per day to 2.5 million bpd by 2026, the initiative has already demonstrated strong momentum with current unreconciled daily production averaging 1.7–1.83 mbpd’, Komolafe stated.
The sharp decline recorded in August is a setback to the recoveries of the previous months.
When President Tinubu appointed the new board of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), led by Ahmadu Kida (Chairman) and Bayo Ojulari (Group Chief Executive Officer), he gave them a mandate to raise oil production to two million barrels daily by 2027 and three million barrels daily by 2030.
Concurrently, the government wanted gas production jacked up to eight billion cubic feet daily by 2027 and 10 billion cubic feet by 2030. Furthermore, Tinubu expected the new board to elevate NNPC’s share of crude oil refining output to 200,000 barrels by 2027 and reach 500,000 by 2030.
During the inauguration of the new board in May, the NNPCL GCEO, Ojulari, said the team had already met with industry stakeholders to review operations and business relationships.
Ojulari noted that the management had started optimising various aspects of the company, including the turnaround maintenance of the refineries.
He said oil production had risen to 1.7 million barrels in two months from 1.5 million barrels, with the target of reaching 1.9 million barrels by December.
‘We will promise what we can deliver, and we will deliver on our promise’, Ojulari added.
In an earlier statement, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, had repeatedly said Nigeria could produce three million barrels of oil daily. In January, Nigeria raised its average daily crude output to 1,538,697 barrels.
The PUNCH reports that Nigeria failed to meet the crude oil production quota approved by OPEC throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024.
The government started 2025 on a good note with crude production surging from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.539 mbpd in the first month of the year. This was about 39,000 barrels above the 1.5 mbpd set for the oil-producing country by OPEC.
Nigeria’s brief accomplishment in meeting the OPEC quota in June and July was seen by industry players as a sign of improvement. However, the August slip back below target highlighted the persistent volatility of its oil sector.
