It can safely be assumed that Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 election, is still a member of the party. The assumption is premised on the fact that he has not formally resigned from the party, in the manner Atiku Abubakar and Nasir el-Rufai, presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in that election and former governor of Kaduna State, respectively, did.
Obi had a brief romance with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), specifically on the day the resuscitated party was unveiled in Abuja, sometime in May 2025, as one of the well-known figures in the Nigerian political circle who attended and occupied the high table at the event. Others were Atiku, el-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi, former governor of Rivers State, who was also Minister of Transportation in the Muhammadu Buhari administration.
The attendance of the former Anambra State governor at the event sparked speculations that he was about to jump ship, from the Labour Party that was already enmeshed in a crisis. This was more so as Datti Baba-Ahmed, his running mate in 2023, was also at the event. With the presence of Atiku and el-Rufai at the ADC unveiling, it was easy to draw conclusions about the readiness by both men to join ADC, since they had resigned from their parties – Atiku, from PDP, and el-Rufai, from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), though the latter had, not long earlier, joined the Social Democratic Party.
However, while Atiku and el-Rufai have formally registered with ADC, Obi has yet to do so, leaving political watchers to wondering about where he stands, as far as party membership is concerned. This puzzle is further heightened by the fact that Baba-Ahmed attended a recent meeting of the Julius Abure-led faction of the Labour Party, a meeting that was attended and monitored by officials of the Independent National Election Commission – an indication that it is the faction recognised by the election umpire.
It is not difficult to know that Obi’ delay in joining ADC is borne out of the fact that it has become clear to him, as it is to discerning Nigerians, that the door of the party is not open to him. Literally speaking, the door of the party has been shut in his face, and the man who did that is none other than Atiku, with the active connivance of the party leadership.
We had earlier said that Atiku is speculated to be the one funding ADC, a development that places him at a pole position to get the party to organise an open primary for the selection of its presidential candidate for 2027, which he would easily win, not because he is the best material, but because he has the resources to buy the support of every delegate to the event. Events have proved unmistakably that the former Vice President already has the party firmly in his pocket.
Firstly, while the party is trying to build its structures to enable it to be ready for the general election, Atiku’s cronies are shopping for his running mate in the election – nearly one year before parties are expected to hold primaries to select their candidates and running mates. The search party is led by Dele Momodu, publisher of Ovation magazine and one of Atiku’s spokesmen in 2023.
In a manner that smacks of arrogance and a mindset that is already celebrating victory at the primary, Momodu has been widely reported as urging Obi to make up his mind quickly to accept to be Atiku’s running mate in 2027, warning that further delay by him could see the “opportunity” being passed on to Amaechi.
This kind of utterance can only come from a mind that has concluded that Atiku’s emergence as the party’s presidential flagbearer in 2027 is a done deal. Obviously, Momodu knows what Nigerians and the generality of the members of ADC, including Obi, do not know. If that is the case, then a primary would be held for the purpose of taking a voice vote by delegates to choose the party’s presidential candidate for 2027.
Secondly, Atiku was widely reported as having hosted ADC chairmen from the 36 states of the federation in Abuja on Wednesday, 3 December 2025 – not in the party secretariat, but in his private residence. It is certain he funded the logistics and welfare of the state chairmen since it was a personal invitation, not the party’s official event. What this tells everyone is that he already has the state chairmen of the party as his coordinators who would, in turn, organise the delegates that would rubberstamp his emergence as the party’s candidate for the 2027 election.
Where does this leave Obi whose intention to take a second shot at the presidency in 2027 is well known? It is obvious that as Nigerian ruling parties often say to opposition parties eyeing political power at the federal and state levels, there is no vacancy for Obi as a possible presidential candidate of ADC for the 2027 election. That slot has already been given to Atiku, who is merely waiting for formal adoption in 2026.
The former Anambra State governor seems to be acutely aware of this fact. That is why he is asking the leadership of the party to clearly define the basis of the alliance that is being formed for the 2027 election. It is noteworthy that he sees his fraternisation with ADC as an alliance, not as a party he fully belongs. He insists he is a member of the Labour Party. But the truth is that ADC sees itself as the opposition party, not a party working in alliance with any other party to form an opposition to the ruling party. This makes it very obvious that Obi is not on the same page with David Mark, the ADC National Chairman; Rauf Aregbesola, National Secretary; Atiku, el-Rufai and Amaechi. He is a loner in the party, obviously the reason he has not picked up its membership card.
There is only one choice open to Obi. He has to return to the Labour Party and help in building and getting it fully prepared for the general election. He cannot be in Labour Party and talk about an alliance with ADC when the real owners of that party are not considering an alliance with any party. But let us even consider that the party would be interested in forming an alliance with another party. Does Obi imagine the alliance would produce him as the presidential candidate? That would not happen. All those backing Atiku, especially the northern elements who left the PDP with him, believe he is the best man to rule the country. Obi stands no chance in the party.
From the time Obi emerged the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in May 2022, he had barely four months to prepare himself for the commencement of electioneering in September for the 28 February 2023 presidential election. With no physical structure anywhere in the country, he was seen as the underdog and a joker by the established parties. But he was able to galvanise not just the youths, but the elderly who believed in him and saw in him the emergence of a new Nigeria. He re-designed the country’s political map by coming third with 6.1 million votes.
With more than one year to prepare, Obi stands a better chance of winning the 2027 election than he was in 2023. It may be safe to assume that the 6.1 million Nigerians who voted for him in the last election would stand by him in the next episode. And with the increasing hardship and pain being experienced by Nigerians, including those who voted for Tinubu in 2023, there is a high probability that Obi would win more converts in 2027.
As we have pointed out before, the mass defections being witnessed in Nigeria today are carried out by elective office holders who care only about their pockets, and who do not constitute up to one per cent of voters. The real voters, the Nigerians who determine those that would rule them, have not defected. In fact, if some of them have defected, they are those who committed the grave error of voting for Tinubu in 2023, but have made up their minds to move in the opposite direction, come 2027.
But in the highly possible event that Tinubu, who is in control of all the machinery of state – election umpire, security and law enforcement agencies – wins a second term, let it be recorded that Obi fought a good fight to liberate the country from the stranglehold of the dark forces that have held it down since independence, but was denied the opportunity by the same forces. That would be better than agreeing to run as a spare tire to someone that is not comparable to him, just because he is desperate to be in the corridors of power at the federal level.
Being a statement by the Fourth Force signed by its National Coordinator, Senator Ani
