President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, saying its findings indicate that his administration’s economic reforms are beginning to yield results and place the country on a firmer path towards sustained growth.
The report, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, examined Nigeria’s economic performance and the impact of increased government revenues on spending by state governments.
In a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu highlighted the World Bank’s finding that Nigeria’s poverty rate had stabilised for the first time since 2019, with the institution projecting a gradual decline as economic growth outpaces population growth.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period in 2025, despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
The World Bank projected that economic growth would average at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
On inflation, the report said the rate declined from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025 before rising global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict slowed further progress.
The bank nevertheless expects inflation to ease to about 12 per cent by 2028.
Nigeria’s external position also improved, with the current account surplus rising to $12 billion, equivalent to 7.0 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the first half of 2026, up from $8.6 billion a year earlier.
Gross external reserves increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion by the end of August 2026.
The report attributed improvements in government revenues to reforms introduced since 2023, which it said increased federation revenues by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with state governments emerging as the largest beneficiaries.
According to the World Bank, states used the additional resources to increase capital expenditure by 151 per cent in real terms over the same period, with much of the spending directed towards roads and transport, agriculture, energy and housing.
Twenty-nine of 33 states shifted their spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person increased in all but one state.
The report also found that internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, while 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios between 2021 and 2025.
Nigeria’s overall public debt is projected to decline from 40.0 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.
Tinubu said the findings supported his administration’s position that difficult but necessary economic decisions, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, the unification of the foreign exchange market and efforts to strengthen fiscal discipline, had helped increase revenues and stabilise the economy.
He said the reforms had also created additional fiscal space for federal, state and local governments to invest in development.
The President, however, acknowledged that more work was required to translate the reported improvements into better living standards, particularly through lower food prices and the creation of decent jobs for young Nigerians.
He pledged to sustain the reform programme under the Renewed Hope Agenda, with plans to expand targeted cash transfers, accelerate the deployment of compressed natural gas (CNG), improve agricultural productivity and widen access to healthcare and education.
According to the statement, the cash transfer programme has reached more than 10 million households.
Tinubu also urged state governments to manage their increased revenues prudently and prioritise projects capable of improving living standards, healthcare and education.
He commended the Economic Management Team, led by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, alongside state governors and other stakeholders, for their cooperation in implementing the reforms.
“I assure Nigerians that the best is yet to come under the Renewed Hope Agenda 2.0, which will accelerate the delivery of shared prosperity for all Nigerians,” the President said.
