The projection was disclosed by George Maher-Bonnett of Argus Media during a presentation at the OTL Africa Downstream conference in Lagos on Wednesday.
Speaking on the theme, ‘African Energy Outlook’, Maher-Bonnett said four modular refineries were operational in Nigeria as of September, with a combined processing capacity of 32,000 barrels per day.
He said the anticipated commissioning of seven additional facilities next year would significantly increase the contribution of modular refineries to domestic petroleum products supply.
‘Four modular refineries operating in September, total 32,000 b/d capacity,’ the presentation stated.
On the projected expansion, it added: ‘Seven new modular refineries to start next year with a total of 83,000 barrels per day capacity.’
The proposed additions would increase Nigeria’s modular refining capacity by more than 250 per cent compared with the 32,000bpd recorded in September.
However, the presentation did not disclose the identities of the seven proposed refineries, their ownership, locations, individual processing capacities or expected commissioning dates.
Maher-Bonnett also highlighted the growing influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Nigeria’s drive towards self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products, noting that increased domestic production was taking place alongside a decline in fuel demand.
According to the presentation, Nigeria’s petroleum products consumption had fallen during the year, with higher pump prices identified as a major factor.
‘Nigerian fuels demand is down this year,’ it stated, attributing the decline to ‘higher flat prices’.
The presentation, however, noted that the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote refinery was improving the country’s self-sufficiency in refined products, while additional modular facilities were expected to strengthen domestic supply.
It also observed that government intervention in the market had been limited during the period under review, apart from a price reduction by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) in the month covered by the presentation.
The developments come as Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector undergoes significant changes following the expansion of domestic refining capacity and adjustments in international petroleum products trading patterns.
Maher-Bonnett said the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, was operating at a high rate, maintaining steady petrol production.
‘Dangote’s 700,000 bpd Lekki refinery is running hard, gasoline output is steady,’ the presentation stated.
The increased availability of locally refined petrol is also affecting the economics of petroleum products imports into West Africa, particularly shipments from European markets.
The presentation indicated that the competitiveness of shipping refined products from Europe to West Africa, as well as from Europe to the United States, had weakened, with higher freight costs adding to the pressure on trade margins.
Beyond Nigeria, the report highlighted developments in Ghana’s refining industry, where the 45,000-barrel-per-day Tema refinery is gradually increasing production.
The improved output from the Ghanaian facility is expected to strengthen the country’s domestic supply capacity and reduce its dependence on imported petroleum products.
The projected expansion of Nigeria’s modular refining sector, alongside increased output from the Dangote refinery, could further reshape regional petroleum products supply and trade flows in West Africa.
