Three weeks ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) helped us solve one electioneering campaign issue: how good the economy has been since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came into power. The statistics office decided to rebase the economy of the country 11 years after the last rebasing was carried out, and it clearly signposted so many things.
Unfortunately, many Nigerians have not taken a critical look at the numbers from that exercise. Given our gullibility as a people, government propagandists are seizing the moment to distort facts. And opposition politicians are paying lip service to it. Which shouldn’t be.
First, the rebasing shows that Nigeria’s economy is the fourth largest in Africa. South Africa, Egypt and Morocco are tops in that order. It says a lot about the government of Nigeria under the All Progressives Congress (APC). When the last rebasing was done in 2014 under President Goodluck Johnathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Nigeria’s economy was the largest in the continent. 11 years after, it is clear that the country has been sleep walking.
Apart from coming fourth, down from the first position, the outcome of this rebasing also shows that Nigerians are not only poorer but also supposedly lazier. That is only on paper. I will explain from both sides of the coin. Our rebased economy shows that our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $567 billion. With a population of 230 million, this translates to $2,465 per year per Nigerian. In 356 days an average Nigerian’s productivity is worth $2,465! This is what medium economies produce in three months while developed economies do so under a month. This is our per capita; far below that of China with a population seven times ours.
A deeper dive into this figure explains many things but I will mention four important ones: that the rate of unemployment in Nigeria is alarmingly high (even if the government doesn’t want to admit it); that lack of constant power supply in Nigeria has a huge negative effect on the size of our economy; that the high rate of insecurity in the country has taken a huge toll on the economy of the nation; and that our population is increasingly getting out of control. Conversely, the situation presents a cheap opportunity for any serious government to know what to focus on.
Going further, an average South African with a $410 billion economy and a population of 63 million is almost three times more productive than a Nigerian. South Africa’s per capita is $6,500. Egypt has a per capita of $2,965 while Algeria’s $5,700 is more than twice Nigeria’s. Again this epitomizes how poor Nigeria is. One is not even trying to make comparisons with Asian and Middle Eastern countries that were dirt poor in the 1960s when Nigeria was a promising star.
Given the entrepreneurial spirit of an average Nigerian, it may not be entirely true that we are generally lazier than other African countries though our GDP has dipped. The massive devaluation of our currency in 2023 may be the single most significant factor for our GDP decline from the first to the fourth in Africa within 11 years.
And as earlier mentioned, lack of electricity is a major draw back too. While Nigeria is still grappling with producing 5,000 megawatts of power, Egypt, with a population half our size, produces 38,800 MW power. South Africa produces 58,000 megawatts and Algeria’s 24,000 megawatts against a population of just 47 million people. So, if any evidence was needed, it is easy to say that there is a clear correlation between electricity supply and economic productivity. If we manage to achieve a national average 15 hours of electricity output per day, Nigeria would be on the way to becoming an economic powerhouse.
Nigeria’s sluggish economic performance has left her people poorer and poorer. As we rebase our economy, we debase our people.
The other day, the Professor Pat Utomi led coalition with the name The Big Tent, stated that Nigeria’s rural poverty is now ‘worse than in 1960’, with 75% of rural Nigerians living in ‘chronic poverty’. The coalition went ahead to posit that the nation was ‘on the brink, overwhelmed by hunger, insecurity, collapsing infrastructure, and a political class ‘more focused on power and propaganda than purpose’. This is a damning, yet true statement.
Did someone take notice of the report from Canada that declared the two political parties that have ruled Nigeria since 1999 as terrorist organizations? No true Nigerian needs feel bad about such report because the two parties, PDP and APC, are anything democratic. They have indeed terrorized our nation in the name of governance. How does one explain the fact that Nigerians are poorer today than they were at independence; that we are now the global headquarters of poverty.
It is very disheartening that a nation so blessed with abundant human and natural resources can have a people so dirt poor. The poverty level of Nigeria is so high that it beggars belief. Not less than 100 million people are in extreme poverty and another 100 million are just a slip away from poverty.
Our governors are the worst culprits on this road to extreme penury. Much of state funds are spent on infrastructure of the wealthy few and on political projects that get abandoned months after the end of every regime. The lives of the masses are literally lift untouched.
With increased taxes, devalued currency, subsidy removal and increased revenue for all tiers of government, the theory was that things would get better but they are getting worse because of increased corruption and inflated government spendings.
Unfortunately, the government of President Tinubu seems to be prioritizing too soon reelection over the welfare and security of the citizens. That is an absolute disaster for the people of Nigeria. Election is not an end in itself but a means to bettering the lives of the citizens.
A lot of work requires to be done to fix the Nigerian economy and lift millions of people out of poverty. Apart from fixing the power sector, the manufacturing sector needs to be revived just as the modernization of our infrastructure. The education and health sectors need complete overhaul for increased living standards. I need not mention two key areas that are in dire straits: security and transparency in governance.
There is still hope for Nigeria and Nigerians if the right things are done. It was Edmund Burke who said that the only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to do nothing. Nigeria is not a country that Nigerians should give up on.
Postscript:
REFLECTIONS! was off the ‘newsstands’ on 1 August 2025 because I took ill! I am healed now; thank God.
Esiere is a former journalist!
