The recent play-out of the dynamics of partisan politics in the oil-rich Rivers State, which featured a rash of defections, offers a complement of lessons, which only those who ignore the insights of history may not see.
Seemingly mundane as a process of politicians changing political camps and shifting loyalties, the eventual impact may sooner than later manifest to prove that not only is change a constant factor to watch out for in politics, especially in Nigeria, but only those who appreciate the course of any specific change and exploit its play-out have a chance to be reckoned with when the chips are down. And any political leader who does not align himself or herself with this reality may sooner than later be trapped in ossification. For Rivers State, whoever does not see this picture is misreading the affairs of the state.
For close watchers of the Rivers State public space, the ongoing political drama in the state, which featured a rash of defections, also manifests as a tale of two metaphorical glass structures, which were broken with one master stroke by the governor of the state, Siminalayi Fubara, to gain his voice and freedom.
The first one is a metaphorical ‘glass house’ occupied by Nyesom Wike, the immediate past governor of the state and now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), from which he had been launching verbal ‘missiles’ and other proclivities at all comers, including Siminalayi Fubara, his successor as governor of Rivers State. This is in spite of the manifest proverbial danger of launching attacks from the vulnerability of such a ‘glass house’. The second had been another metaphorical ‘glass ceiling’ which Wike had imposed on Siminalayi Fubara in a syndrome of emasculation of the latter, which is familiar with followers of the politics of the state.
While it is no more news that the recent realignment of political interests and loyalties in the state have changed its politics, the question is:To what extent will the tendency drive the leadership calculus of the state into the future?
Putting the situation in context, whatever changes that have taken place in the state through these defections point to a paradigm shift in the politics of the state for the foreseeable future. And such will be so unless a major political tsunami takes place to overturn the metaphorical apple cart.
For instance, in recent times there had been a flurry of defections of political leaders from the erstwhile dominant party in the state – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – to the new bride in town – the All Progressives Congress (APC) – which rules at the centre in Abuja.
To kick-start the recent round of defections were the 16 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, who, on 7 December 2025, along with Martins Amaewhule, the Speaker of the House, announced their defection from the PDP to the APC. Their defection had come as an extension of a long-drawn proxy battle for the control of the state’s political structure on behalf of Nyesom Wike, to whom they are loyal. They had defected, ostensibly to unsettle the political balance in the state in favour of their political master, Wike.
Considering their prolonged antagonistic stance against Siminalayi Fubara, then still of the PDP, they had thought the move would guarantee for them the upper hand in odds against the governor. However, soon after their defection, Fubara also defected to the same ruling party, but with a twist, in that he came in as the governor of the state, which by the extant provisions of the APC constitution, makes him the de facto leader of his new party. Hence, he now calls the shots in the affairs of the Rivers State chapter of the APC, where the defected 17 members of the RSHA, being his traducers, had earlier defected to, with the intention of using it as a comfort zone and staging post to continue fighting him.
Traditional African folklore would compare the situation with the case of the rat and the lizard swimming through a pond, and on arrival, faced different consequences. While the rat would be soaked in water and needed to wait for the drying out of his body, the lizard would simply shrug off the water on its body and take off.
That is where a key lesson remains from the new politics in the state. Whereas the political defection train has both the governor of the state and his traducers in the same trip, their relative statuses are different, as they only ended up at his mercy.
The new truth of the matter is that in the light of the new dispensation, the burning issues in the state – one of which is a second term for Fubara – may no more depend on the machinations of his traducers and whatever battery of political obstacles that may have been set up against him. Rather, it is now based on factors beyond them and up to the voters in the state.
That is why the recent ratcheting of hostile public comments by Martins Amaewhule against Siminalayi Fubara may not be the best the Speaker can do in the circumstances, as his political fortunes and those of his co-travellers may be at the disposal of who he needs to court, at this being iFubara. This is the wisdom he needs to display now.
