Every nation that has risen from poverty into prosperity did so by uncovering its internal obstacles and confronting them with clarity and discipline. Development is never a mystery. It follows patterns, principles, and predictable sequences. What remains puzzling in Nigeria’s journey is not what must be done—we know that already but why we have not done it.
We are rich in talent. We are blessed with natural resources. We are energetic, ambitious, and creative. Yet our progress comes in isolated spurts never sustained, never consolidated, never carried to maturity. Something in our national operating system keeps malfunctioning. Something deeper than bad leadership, deeper than poor policies, and deeper than the familiar narratives we recite.
This stubborn Factor X demands honest examination. Why does momentum collapse just when progress is within reach? Why do our institutions struggle to enforce the simplest standards? Why do we treat nation-building as a reaction to crises rather than a disciplined, long-term project? Understanding this Factor X is essential if we want to break the cycle that has held us back for decades.
A major component of this Factor X is a cultural orientation that elevates consumption over production. In our environment, the symbols of success attract more admiration than the processes that produce success. We chase the lifestyle before building the foundation. We glorify the finished product and ignore the discipline behind it. No society grows on the strength of what it consumes; development rises from what it consistently creates.
Our political inheritance compounds the issue. Colonialism left us with structures of control, not structures of development. Its mission was extraction, not nation-building. After independence, this pattern continued almost seamlessly. Government became a platform for influence and distribution rather than an engine of national engineering. Where competence should matter most, loyalty, proximity, ethnic sentiment, and patronage often dominate. Politics shifted from vision to transaction, leaving development stuck in theory rather than practice.
Another uncomfortable truth is our fixation on primitive accumulation. We do not merely acquire beyond our needs; we often accumulate more than the needs of our next five generations. This mentality—shaped by distrust in institutions and fear of insecurity—has hardened into a national instinct. It is every-person-for-self carried to an extreme. Meanwhile, societies that develop choose continuity, long-term investments, and a collective sense of stability. Here, personal security overshadows national possibility.
Institutional indiscipline is equally damaging. Nations succeed not because their citizens are flawless, but because their systems are firm. Standards are upheld. Deadlines are respected. Consequences are predictable. In Nigeria, rules bend easily, deadlines shift endlessly, and almost everything is negotiable. Development requires structure consistent, repetitive structure which we often treat as a nuisance.
We also lack a coherent national development philosophy. Vision is not what a president proclaims; it is what a country upholds across administrations. Successful nations anchor themselves on a long-term blueprint that survives political cycles. Nigeria, however, starts afresh every four years. No continuity. No ideological backbone. No sustained commitment to a shared destination. A nation that continually resets cannot steadily rise.
Our elite class, across sectors, is another missing link. Successful societies produce elites who compete politically but cooperate nationally. They may disagree on implementation, but they align on fundamental goals: security, education, infrastructure, productivity. Nigerian elites, by contrast, often pursue personal ambition over national consensus. Without a common minimum agenda, national progress remains episodic and fragile.
Despite these longstanding structural problems, it is only fair to ask whether the present government has begun to confront this national malaise in any meaningful way. To its credit, there have been attempts to stabilise the macroeconomic environment, tackle leakages, streamline subsidies, and enforce a more realistic exchange rate regime steps many previous administrations avoided for political convenience. There is also a recurring emphasis on attracting foreign investment and rebuilding critical infrastructure. However, reforms that touch the pockets of citizens require strong institutional discipline, clear communication, and visible sacrifice from those in authority.
Nigerians are yet to see a convincing demonstration of shared responsibility from the political class—an essential ingredient for public trust. The government may have signalled an appetite for reform, but without coherence, consistency, and a unified national philosophy driving those reforms, the efforts risk becoming episodic rather than transformational.
Religion, too, plays a role not faith itself, but the escapism that often accompanies it. While nations that develop rely on research, planning, and accountability, we frequently substitute strategy with spiritual expectation. A country cannot outsource responsibility to prayer houses. Miracles may transform individuals, but systems transform nations.
So what exactly is Nigeria’s Factor X?
Nigeria’s breakthrough will not emerge from rhetoric, sentiment, or periodic bursts of reform. It will come only when we rewire the national mindset that glorifies shortcuts, excuses, and individual gain at the expense of collective progress. Development is not a miracle; it is the predictable reward of discipline, productivity, and shared purpose. Until we rebuild our institutions, demand accountability at every level, and cultivate a culture where the national interest outweighs personal advantage, we will continue circling the same mountain. Our future will change the moment our behaviour changes and not a moment before.
Olufemi Adefemiwa is an author, public communicator, and commentator on governance and development. He writes from New York and can be reached at jerome.adefemiwa@gmail.com.
