It is already Day Sixteen since the United States of America and Israel commenced their war against Iran on 28 February 2026. No one knew, still no one knows, how this current war would end. The very early and major surprise of the war was the ease with which Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khemanei was killed on Day One of the war.
Already, militarily, Iran is on its knees just two weeks into the war. Not only have its military infrastructure, industries and equipment been destroyed, the top echelon of its military leaders are all but gone. Many of its soldiers have also been killed. The Islamic Republic regime that came into power in 1979 following the revolution that overthrew the Shah government has never seen a thing like this.
To be sure, the regime has been a pain in the neck of many neighbouring nations. For eight years, Iran fought its neighbour Iraq in a very bloody war. To be sure, that war was started by Iraq when it invaded Iran in September 1980, very early in the Ayatollahs regime. But the outcome of the war on Iran had no comparison with what is currently going on. That war against Iraq did not affect the regime one bit. If anything, it enhanced the regime’s resolve to be a revolutionary force in the region and beyond.
No matter how we spin it, at the minimum, no less than 3,000 human beings have been killed by this war already, thrice that number wounded and over three million people displaced. The majority are Iranians followed by the Lebanese. On the surface, Lebanon is not supposed to be at war but Hezbollah, the Iranian foot soldiers against Israel in that country, would not let Lebanon be. It reminds one of Hamas’ misadventures of 7 October 2023, the invasion and killing of over a thousand Israelis. Since then, Gaza has been a land in ruins.
The destruction in Lebanon is no less enormous. The Hezbollah’s attack on Israel is very well understood. Iran is the oxygen of Hezbollah, and an attack on Iran is an attack on Hezbollah. It would have been unthinkable if Hezbollah did not join in this fight. But regimes that breath hatred for Israel or rather for Jews can at best thrive on permanent strifes.
The second major shock of this war is the attack that most nonAfrican Arab countries have suffered from since the start. To the consternation of many of its foes and allies alike, Iran has directly attacked Oman, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan. and Azerbaijan. Even Cyprus and Azerbaijan have been attacked by Iran. There’s no US ally in the Middle East (save Egypt) that has not been attacked. This does not appear to be a good strategy for Iran in the long run. Does it care about how these countries will view a future Iran? Unless there’s a real regime change (which is nearly impossible given how entrenched the Islamic Revolutionary Guards government has been these past 49 years), the Iranian government has burned the bridges of relationships with the Arab nations with this ill conceived strategy. Though they meant to pressure the Arab nations to get Trump to backpedal on the war, it has not worked. The Arab countries are also learning to know the other side of Donald Trump from this war.
Interestingly, these Arab countries became allies of the ‘Great Satan’ because of the bellicose regime in Tehran. For instance, the hatred between the regimes in Iran and Saudi Arabia is very well known. Any unstable Arab country or territory is likely caused by Iran: Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and the Palestinian Territories because Iran has armed militants and terrorists in their territories: Houthi, Hezbollah, Hamas, name it. Many Arab countries, which are mainly monarchies, do not subscribe to Iran’s brand of Islam and regime. Which explains the surprise (war Surprise Number Three) that the Iran’s Assembly of Experts would select Mojtaba, the son of the assassinated supreme leader, to succeed his father. Wouldn’t that be a monarchy of some sort!
The attacks on Iran by the combined forces of the United States and Israel have been very devastating, even unheard of. Ordinarily, some countries would have surrendered given the intensity of these bombardments but that would be unheard of in a regime such as the Islamic Republic of Iran’s. It is commendable to the ingenuity of the Iranian military and leadership that it is still able to fire drones and missiles at Israel and US interests in the Middle East up until now despite the level of destruction that has occurred to its military personnel, infrastructure and facilities. Even though these firepowers are fewer and far between, one is not supposed to be seeing them happening up till now. It should come as a surprise to President Trump that a country with its military capabilities “obliterated” last June and now with “no navy” is still able to respond to some of the attacks as the war enters its third week.
But the leaders of Iran failed to read appropriately the minds of the two masterminds of this war: the United States’ President Donald Trump and the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu. For Trump, the stoppage of oil tankers’ movement on the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to high crude prices, the attack on US embassy in Iraq, and to a lesser extent the attacks on American allies in the Middle East have combined to rattle Washington into pounding Iran longer and harder. The near destruction of oil infrastructure in the Kharg Island, Iran’s strategic oil export hub, incidentally built by the Americans under the Shah government, and the escalation of the attacks are a direct consequence of this fact.
For Bibi, what a great desire for this war to last longer! Last June during the 12 days attack on Iran, Israel’s primary aim was to eliminate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who since he took over power in 1989 had made the destruction of Israel his primary objective of government, but was stopped by Trump. Which explains why Israel went for him on Day One of this war. Netanyahu has unleashed the superiority of Israeli military might in this war and desires nothing less than the humiliation of Iran militarily.
For Trump, his eyes are now on the make or mar midterm elections in November. If he fails to achieve the shifting objectives (shifting because no one, not even Trump, knows the objectives) of this war, the polls will be to his disadvantage. He desperately needs the majority in the two chambers for the rest of his presidency, else, he will be chopped alive by the democrats. Conversely, the Israeli Prime Minister will emerge as the happiest man in this war, not only because he has succeeded in carrying out devastating attacks on his country’s number one enemy, but also because he will keep Israel in relative peace for a few decades. It will take a long time for Iran to build its military strength to the prewar levels and able to fund those terrorist organisations it currently has. Hamas is greatly tamed; Hezbollah may soon be; and charity will have to start in Tehran first before it is extended to Beirut and Gaza, which Trump is trying to corner.
This is one war that everyone is fighting across the globe one way or the other, willingly or otherwise. Because of the war, prices of oil and gas have risen. Fossil fuels, despite all the green energy campaigns, are still the most dominant energy sources of the world. In Nigeria for example, prices of gasoline were in the N800s per litre range before the war, but they are now around N1,400 per litre or more. Diesel prices have increased significantly by about 50 percent over the last two weeks. This means we, who were not consulted about the war, have to pay more for electricity, transportation, foods and other goods and services because of the war.
This week will signpost where this war is headed as nations begin to talk about negotiations, ceasefires and such like. As history has repeatedly demonstrated, but human beings have continued to behave like the French Bourbon, learning nothing and forgetting nothing, the only good thing about wars is never to start one.
