An economists, a policy analyst and a Diaspora professional have sharply disagreed on the state of Nigeria’s economy. They however agreed that security issues must be resolved.
During a heated virtual session, hosted by the People’s Parliament of the Initiative for Good and Informed Citizenship, the panelists examined President Bola Tinubu’s performance two-and-a-half years into office.
Amid economic hardship and worsening insecurity, the group convened a national conversation titled “Is Nigeria Getting Better?”, drawing experts from the academia, infrastructure policy, branding, and the Diaspora to assess the Nigerian situation.
Attended by Nigerians at home and abroad, the session featured brand expert and author, Mr. Muyiwa Kayode; Head of Finance Department at the University of Lagos, Prof. Babatunde Oke; and United States-based architect and public policy critic, Mr. James Aderoju.
Kayode kicked off on the position that the Tinubu administration’s economic direction were unavoidable policies, particularly the ‘unpopular but necessary decisions’ on fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate unification.
He said: ‘The country is headed in the right direction’, arguing that fuel availability and reduced arbitrage prove that reforms are taking hold.
But Aderoju rejected that position, warning that Nigeria ‘has been moving in the wrong direction for a long time’.
He accused leaders of being ‘not ready for prime time’, and said that ’90 to 95%’ of Nigerians are worse off than three years ago. ‘The only thing getting better is the patience of Nigerians’, he argued.
Oke presented a more sober reflection, saying there has been some healing, considering economic indices.
Despite improvements, he warned that economic hardship remained widespread because of continued insecurity and weak policy cushioning.
According to him, inflation has eased from a peak of 34.6% to 16.05%; food inflation dropped from 39.9% to 13.2%; GDP growth rose to 4.23%; and oil output increased to 1.66 million barrels per day.
However, he cautioned that rising debt and continued insecurity are undermining progress. ‘Foreign investors will not come where kidnapping is rampant’, he said .
Security drew unanimous criticism among the panelists and the audience. On that issue, Kayode admitted that the government is ‘not doing enough’.
He asked: ‘Is the government doing enough on security’?, and responded: ‘No, I don’t think so. This is critical because security affects everything – the economy, food security, investment’.
Oke cited poor intelligence coordination as the core security failure. He lamented the exodus of foreign companies, stressing that that hurts the economy.
He said: ‘Foreign investors will not come to a place with high insecurity and kidnapping. The government appears helpless’.
For Aderoju, it was not just about security issues, but the failure of leadership to communicate and connect with Nigerians.
He insisted that President Tinubu must speak directly to Nigerians. ‘When your people are dying, you don’t only speak to foreigners. The Commander-in-Chief must address citizens to comfort them’, he said, as he advised President Tinubu to cultivate the habit of visiting disaster areas, talk directly to the people and connect emotionally with them when there is bad news, as other world leaders usually do.
Audience members were more charged up, accusing officials of negotiating with bandits and ignoring the victims.
‘Security is non-existent! Government officials move around in convoys while everyday people are kidnapped and killed’, wrote a participant from the United Kingdom, Wale F. C.
Another participant, Abiola R, said that negotiations with bandits had become ‘a business model’.
The panel proposed wide-ranging reforms. Aderoju advocated the scrapping of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal highway and redirecting funds to rural roads and electrification, calling the project ‘the wrong big thing to build right now’.
‘Building big things is not the issue; building the wrong big things is. Nigeria must focus on what benefits the most people’, he further said.
Kayode disagreed, insisting that the road is a ‘mega project’ and essential to the country’s global positioning.
According to the brand strategist, for Nigeria to be the giant of Africa, it must commit to doing things that are reflective of that positioning.
He said: ‘The Lagos-Calabar Road is a mega project, and 70% of it is private sector driven. Nigeria must begin to do big things if we truly want to be a giant’.
Oke prioritised fixing insecurity, boosting healthcare and education, and achieving ‘zero importation’ of refined petroleum.
Asked when Nigerians should expect real change, Kayode said that the vision plans must be simple enough to impact on daily life.
He explained that visionary plans fail because of poor articulation. ‘We don’t need another 1,500-page document like Vision 2010. A national vision should speak to the man on the street’.
Oke attributed past failures to poor implementation and leaders ‘living large’, despite low wages and suffering. ‘Leaders live large, importing expensive cars or building villas for the Vice President, while minimum wage is ignored. That is why visions fail’, he said.
The forum closed with a reminder that Nigeria’s recovery depends on both the leaders and citizens.
Oke said: ‘The purpose of government is the welfare and security of the people. Until that is achieved, governance will remain broken’.
The moderator, Chris Tunde Odediran, who was a journalist, said that Nigeria’s progress would ultimately depend on both leaders and citizens.
‘Whether Nigeria is getting better depends on evidence, accountability, and participation. Good citizenship is the bedrock of good leadership’, he said.
