The ‘dog and the baboon’ elections

It is ironic that less than 24 hours to Nigeria’s presidential elections most Nigerians are still economically and socially crippled. While the drama over the collection of new Naira notes from banks and at the Automated Teller Machine points is simmering, the tension at homes and on the streets have reached an all high.

Last Friday, Samuel, a young man who hails from Plateau State, travelled from Lagos to Abeokuta to be able to withdraw N5,000 from his bank account. Since he noticed that all the branches of the bank where he maintains an account were practically under lock, the young man resorted to travelling outside the state to save himself from avoidable death through starvation. According to him, he had not eaten for three days because he could not have access to his money. As soon as someone gave him a gift of N1,000, he had to engage his brain and legs for survival. Worsening the nation’s economic situation is the near collapse of almost all the banking Apps used for online transactions. Some Nigerians have reported that they are only able to make transfers at past midnight.

The fuel queues may not be as long as they used to be. This is due to the fact that each filling station is now selling a litre of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) at a price solely determined by the manager. In Lagos State, the prices of PMS vary from N220 per litre to N380 per litre, depending on what part of the state you are buying from. Everyone is now a law unto himself or herself in Nigeria. Even Governors like Umar Ganduje of Kano, Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna and Dapo Abiodun of Ogun States have been publicly challenging the authority of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as part of the new Naira imbroglio.

As all these uncertainties continue, things are falling apart with the speed of a tsunami. Business owners are already groaning. Sanusi Dantata’s case typifies the disillusionment of most business owners in Nigeria with the downturn in the economy. Dantata, an entrepreneur, is the son of the late business mogul Abdulkadir Dantata. He recently lamented on his twitter handle that patronage has been poor. His poultry store that produces about 500 crates of eggs every day now has a stockpile of unsold eggs because customers are not buying like before. This is despite the tactics of his company in reducing prices by 20 percent and a policy of accepting online payments as well as old Naira notes from customers. The silver spoon businessman agonised: “We all are suffering for the sins of a few”! If a chip-off-the-old-block-of-wealth can publish his anguish, it can only be left to conjecture that the less than average business owner whose voice is not heard is already on the throes of death. Geoffrey Chaucer, in his famous Canterbury Tales, once quipped, “if good rust, what shall iron do”?

There is no sector of the economy that is not adversely affected by the hydra headed crisis. The staff members of companies now go to work on alternate days. For manufacturing concerns, this is a major blow to productivity.

Tomorrow’s presidential elections therefore provides an opportunity for Nigerians to reposition the country for ultimate greatness. This is a make or mar elections season. Someone has mischievously said that if Nigerians do not get it right this time around, we should approach the British to re-colonise the country. As grotesque as this may sound, it reflects the frustration and desperation of the masses.

This is no doubt a weekend when “…the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood” in Nigeria’s politics, to borrow from President Muhammadu Buhari’s proverb of May 2012. As the presidential candidate of Congress for Progressive Change, Buhari was reported to have declared kare jini, biri jini on BBC Hausa service. In the rebuttal of the English interpretation written by Umar Bello and published on 18 May, 2012 by an online newspaper, he explained that this house proverb “is mostly used where fierce competitions occur especially in sports and politics”. It is certain that tomorrow’s three horse race elections will be a fierce contest. Nigerians in all the regions are no doubt passionate about the elections.

Whoever is declared the winner may not immediately guarantee the kind of peace that we witnessed after the 2015 presidential elections. While the results of the elections were still being counted, the then President Goodluck Jonathan called his opponent, Buhari to congratulate him as the President elect.

The prospect of this repeating itself are very slim. Going by the tone of the most popular presidential candidates during the electioneering campaigns, it will be wishful thinking to expect any of the three front liners to concede defeat without challenging the results that the Independent National Electoral Commission will declare. It is also unlikely that the supporters of any of the trio of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar will eat the humble pie if their respective candidates are not declared winner.

Barring any major last minute manoeuvres, the possibility of a landslide is slim. This means that election results may be contested up to the Supreme Court. President Buhari might have spoken too soon in 2012 about a fierce political  contest. Now that he has been facing strident contentions from some governors, who are members of his party, he should have a better understanding about how the “dog and the baboon” slug it out in the jungle. Shall we now ask: “Is President Muhammadu Buhari among the prophets”?

Adeduro, Ph.D, is a productivity consultant and public affairs analyst