Tomorrow in my home State of Osun, an election will be held to determine who will be governor for the next four years. The three leading candidates out of 15 are the incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party; Nurudeen Oyebamiji of the ruling party, APC, which controls 30 out of 36 states of the federation; and Dr Najeem Salaam, who is holding the banner for the ADC.
What is making landfall in Osun tomorrow is a hurricane. I call it such because the recklessness and desperation of politicians to stay relevant in Osun’s gubernatorial purlieu of power have already claimed the lives of about forty people. Contracted thugs have killed and maimed people. They have burnt homes and pulled down billboards. In Osun, as you read this, miscreants are hunting humans down like you hunt down animals in the hunting fields of Imesi-Ile. It will get worse in the next 20 hours. Someone may be reading this and suggesting that it’s typical of election-season schizophrenia. Does that make killings of political opponents right? I don’t think so.
All the major political parties are guilty of these benighted and depraved behaviours. I watched a sitting senator of one of the parties commanding his men to kill anyone from a particular political party sauntering into his senatorial district for votes. Others may not make it blatant; Nigerian politicians perpetrate the same evil acts.
This election is sure to be a hurricane making landfall where Adeleke is governor. I watched a video of one of his many campaigns where he was crying that he’s been stifled, harangued and harassed by opponents in collusion with security forces. According to him, many of his men have been killed, and many more are languishing behind bars. In a recent town hall appearance, the governor accused former Governor Gboyega Oyetola of being the guy behind his woes during this campaign. But he has a heightened hope that he will win hands down tomorrow.
I have never met Adeleke, but I saw him from afar during the inauguration of Rauf Aregbesola as Osun governor in 2014. And he was dancing too. I wanted to know who he was because when rotunda personalities dance the way Adeleke wriggles his body, ribs crack with laughter. If I were to make a dashing decision on who I’ll vote for, it may favour this governor. His performance isn’t sweepingly stellar, but the last four years may be an indication of what a second term will be. Adeleke is not the best politician or candidate in all of Osun, but in this season, he seems to be the tolerable best to many. He has men, he has money, he has the momentum, and he has also performed. He owes no workers’ salaries; he’s paid pensions as and when due, and he has put smiles on workers’ faces.
That was not achieved by his predecessor. Adeleke has been a blessing to my hometown of Imesi-Ile, a town long neglected by many governors in the past. If my people are voting for this governor tomorrow, they will only be showing gratitude to him for remembering them when others did not. Adeleke has built roads in the most unbelievable spots in my hometown. He has done the same in many towns and villages in the state. If Adeleke wins tomorrow, it will be because of what he got right, not what he got wrong.
I did not pay much attention to Oyebamiji, the candidate for APC, until I watched his town hall colloquium a few days ago. Oyebamiji is not as rambunctious as his incumbent governor opponent; he is calm and cool. He is also cerebral and politically savvy. His resume is a firestorm of intimidation to an analphabet. I like the highbrow banker and finance cognoscente. He worked as Commissioner for Finance under two governors and was the managing director/chief executive officer of the National Inland Waterways Authority, under the Marine and Blue Economy Ministry. Oyebamiji has done much for his faith in Osun as a Muslim, but this man has also built a church for CAN in his community. He has the money, the men, and the momentum. And he has what others in this race wish they had – easy access to Aso Rock. Anyone with access to the villain Abuja has access to the mammoth might of the Federal Government. What his people are asking is why the president has not shown up to campaign for him. But does it really matter? In a nail-biter election like tomorrow’s, you need everything and everybody. Oyebamiji is Adeleke’s nightmare. Empirically, victory tomorrow is between him and Adeleke.
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Salaam of the ADC has a fiery hope that he is the one whose cap fits in tomorrow’s election. Najeem is a cerebral, cool dude with a calm spirit and a PhD in political science under his belt. The two-term speaker of the State House of Assembly easily holds his own in Osun politics, and he knows how government works.
I watched his town hall talk recently, and it’s obvious he can fix the warped nuts and bolts of government if given the chance. Salaam has the rugged grassroots political icon, former two-term Governor of the state and immediate past Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, stoutly behind him.
Will these translate to a win for Salaam tomorrow? He will need God of Miracles to win tomorrow. About God? You never know who God of Wonders will crown king until He does.
I conclude with this thought. A man called Samuel Augustus Maverick was a Texas lawyer, politician, landowner, and cattleman. In the American cattle country of the 1800s, it was an unwritten law for ranchers to brand their cattle to identify ownership. Samuel acquired a herd but refused to brand his cattle because of his independent-mindedness. His unbranded cattle now became “Mavericks”. Over time, anyone who thinks and acts independently, who refuses to follow the crowd and does not conform to established expectations, becomes a ‘Maverick’.
If any of the Osun candidates will be banking on the stomach infrastructure of rice and beans, splurging cash to voters, and other underhanded tactics and antics to coerce voters to vote for them tomorrow, they had better rethink. The Osun people are Mavericks with a mind of their own. The electoral history lends support to that observation. Osun voters are not permanently tied to one political party. They can change direction based on candidates, performance, local interests, party divisions, and prevailing political circumstances. Do not bank on them to be herded into a political direction because a party leader, godfather, or political establishment says so. When they enter the polling booth, it’s easy for them to separate candidates from party, performance from propaganda, and their own interests from political instructions. An average Osun voter will listen to you but has a mind of his own. And in the election, we will see how these Mavericks are voting tomorrow.
