Political analyst, Henry Shield has suggested that President Bola Tinubu may find it difficult to match the vote count he received in the 2023 election, arguing that a hypothetical opinion poll today would likely show most Nigerians unwilling to vote for him.
Shield made the claim during a television interview, where he was asked to provide evidence for his assertion that Tinubu would not secure as many votes in 2027 as he did in the 2023 election.
According to him, his prediction was based on what he described as consultations, surveys and interactions with Nigerians across different segments of society.
“We do market consultation, market surveys, we do street surveys. We go out and we engage with the people, and I can tell you, sample 1,000 Nigerians, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu,” Shield said.
He challenged media organisations and other stakeholders to independently test his claim through a nationwide opinion survey, stressing that such an exercise would provide a clearer picture of voters’ current preferences ahead of the 2027 election.
“Please don’t take my word. You are a media house. Engage people to do this for the sake of our democracy, sample just 1,000. Don’t do 1,001. Don’t do the other 9,999. Exactly 1,000,” he said.
Shield added: “Sample 1,000 opinions today in Nigeria, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu.”
Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 8,794,726 votes, representing 36.61% of the total votes cast.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate at the time, Atiku Abubakar, came second with 6,984,520 votes, or 29.07%, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi polled 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40%.
All three political figures are expected to play prominent roles in the 2027 presidential contest, though Atiku and Obi will now be pursuing the presidency under different party platforms.
Atiku has switched from the PDP to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Obi has departed the Labour Party for the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC).
