As civilians in both Israel and Gaza, the Palestinian territory governed by Hamas, continue to be on the receiving end of the war that broke out on 7 October, the political repercussions of the conflict is altering the dynamics in upcoming elections in countries as far away as the United Kingdom and the United States of America.
With thousands protesting across major cities in Europe, the impact of the war on local politics is more pronounced in Europe than in the United States and is leading to a divide between Europe and the U.S.
The war is also causing unrest in Middle Eastern countries like Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and Morocco, some of which had earlier made peace deals with Israel.
On Friday, only 12 countries supported the US and Israel at the UN General Assembly in opposing a motion calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Palestine.
In the motion sponsored by Jordan, 120 countries voted in support against the 14 that opposed the motion, with 45 countries abstaining from voting.
Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, said the general assembly had “spoken for justice”.
He said the resolution was a clear stand against Israel’s war, against the killing of Palestinians, against war crimes, on the side of international law.
Though the resolution is non-binding, it reflects world opinion on events unfolding in the Middle East. In contrast, the Security Council, which has powers to pass binding resolutions, has been unable to pass a motion on the crisis without either Russia or the US wielding its veto power.
The US was the only major power that voted against the General Assembly motion, while a majority of European countries abstained from voting.
Belgium, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Norway voted in favour of the resolution, while Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Croatia voted against the resolution.
Apart from the four European countries, six of the votes that went the way of the US position were from Pacific islands, namely Fiji, Tonga, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru and Papua New Guinea.
The UN General Assembly resolution stressed the importance of preventing further destabilisation and escalation of violence in the region.
It also asked all parties to exercise maximum restraint and for all those with influence on the feuding parties to work toward this objective.
The US has consistently insisted on the right of Israel to defend itself, refusing to publicly call for a ceasefire.
The surprise abstention was the UK, which has witnessed some of the largest protests calling for a ceasefire.
The protests have put considerable pressure on the UK government, but it is in the opposition Labour Party that the war is causing a rebellion.
Labour leader, Keir Starmer, was quoted in a recent interview as saying Israel has the right to cut food and water supplies from the Gaza Strip.
According to a report from the Independent, citing a recent poll, Labour voters think Keir Starmer has handled the Gaza crisis badly because of his refusal to back a ceasefire.
Starmer, according to reports, is now being warned by frontbenchers that the party could lose seats over his stance.
A new YouGov survey finds that 42 per cent of 2019 Labour voters think that he has badly handled his response to the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Only 26 per cent think Starmer – who has refused to support a ceasefire despite backing from a revolt by dozens of MPs and the party’s devolved leaders – has handled it well.
London mayor Sadiq Khan, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar all broke ranks to challenge Sir Starmer’s stance on Gaza.
Labour MPs have told The Independent that more than 100 of Sir Starmer’s MPs – half his parliamentary party, including some frontbenchers – want him to call for a ceasefire in the fighting.
They also warned the Labour leader that the party faces an “existential threat” in seats with a large number of Muslim voters, as councillors quit and local parties pass motions in favour of an immediate ceasefire.
But as Israel’s assault on the strip intensifies, the Labour leader is facing growing calls from party members and MPs to take a stronger line and demand a ceasefire.
Starmer’s refusal to do so is causing a ruckus within the party rarely seen in his three-and-a-half years as leader.
“It won’t last”, predicted one angry left-wing aide, granted anonymity to speak frankly. “They’re bombing the sh*t out of civilians. He’s going to end up calling for a ceasefire.”
The conflict in Gaza always had the potential to reopen faultlines in the Labour Party, given that Starmer has expended a huge amount of time and effort trying to turn the page on claims of antisemitism under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. Restoring Labour’s shattered reputation with the Jewish community has been Starmer’s top priority as leader.
Labour also traditionally attracts the support of large numbers of British Muslims — and non-Muslims allied with the Palestinian cause — who are desperate to see the party voice more full-throated support for Gazans.
According to polls, in the 2019 general election, 71 per cent of British Muslims voted for Labour, while now just five per cent said they would vote for Labour again.
And 98 per cent of respondents to the poll said their decision was influenced by the Labour Party’s stance on the ongoing conflict in Israel and Palestine.
As many as 23 Labour Councillors resigned over Starmer’s stance on Israel and 250 Muslim Labour Councillors signed a letter demanding a ceasefire.
In the US, where President Joe Biden has staunchly backed Israel, it is progressive politicians in New York, which has the largest Jewish population, that have found themselves on the defensive.
In Michigan, where Biden won handily in the last presidential elections, Muslim voters are reconsidering their support for the president and may sit out the next election.
In Michigan, Muslim and Arab American voters turned out decisively for Biden three years ago.
A spokesman for the president’s re-election campaign, Anmar Moussa said that Biden “knows the importance of earning the trust of every community, of upholding the sacred dignity and rights of all Americans”, and is working closely with Muslim and Palestinian American leaders.
A Palestinian-American organiser based in Dearborn, Nada Al-Hanooti was quoted by the New York Times saying that as of 2020, there were approximately 200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, making the community a significant voting bloc in a battleground state of 8.2 million registered voters.
Ms Al-Hanooti said Muslims turned out in large numbers for Mr Biden mainly because they were motivated to help defeat President Trump. As a candidate for president, Mr. Trump called for a shutdown of Muslim immigration and referred to “radical Islam” infiltrating American communities, and while in office, he issued an executive order that imposed restrictions on refugees and visitors from seven predominantly Muslim countries.
