The supply disruption triggered by the conflict involving Iran has tested the resilience of emerging liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) markets across sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria recording the sharpest decline as import constraints and weaker domestic production drove demand down by almost 23 per cent.
Energy intelligence provider Argus said in its latest report that, although LPG markets across much of Africa had largely weathered the price volatility and tighter global supplies associated with the conflict, the disruption had highlighted weaknesses in some developing markets.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest LPG market, experienced the most significant impact. Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that LPG demand fell to a seven-month low of 123,000 tonnes in June, nearly 23 per cent below the March figure.
Domestic production also declined by more than 20 per cent during the period, following reduced output from inland gas processing plants and maintenance work at the Dangote refinery’s 218,000 barrels-per-day residual fluid catalytic cracker.
With local supplies under pressure, LPG operators turned increasingly to imports. Argus said imports reached a six-month high of 46,000 tonnes in June, compared with 3,000 tonnes in May and none in April.
Conditions improved later in June after international LPG prices fell following a United States-Iran peace deal and weaker buying competition from Asian markets.
The Argus butane West Africa index dropped by more than 40 per cent, from a March peak of $860.50 per tonne to $513.50 per tonne on 24 June. The price decline helped Nigeria move to a 30,000-tonne supply surplus after four consecutive months of deficit.
Domestic production subsequently recovered in July, easing pressure on the market. Supplies from the Dangote refinery rose by 71 per cent to 25,800 tonnes, while output from gas processing plants increased by 88 per cent to 47,000 tonnes.
The improvement in local supply enabled Nigeria to reduce its reliance on imports even as hostilities between the United States and Iran resumed and international LPG prices began rising again.
Consumers also benefited from the improved supply position. Nigeria’s average LPG retail price fell by 10 per cent month-on-month to N1,491.75 per kilogramme in July, while demand increased by seven per cent to 136,500 tonnes. The increase marked the first monthly rise in demand since March.
Ghana and Kenya
Ghana also experienced tighter LPG supplies during the period, with seaborne imports falling by almost a third year-on-year to about 24,000 tonnes per month between April and August, according to vessel-tracking company Kpler.
The decline caused LPG stocks to fall by more than three-quarters to 5,500 tonnes in early July, equivalent to roughly eight days of consumption.
However, increased domestic production helped limit the impact. Much of the additional supply came from the 40,000 barrels-per-day Sentuo refinery, which Argus said was operating at full capacity.
The planned restart of the residual fluid catalytic cracker at the 45,000 barrels-per-day Tema refinery is expected to provide Ghana with additional local LPG supplies.
Despite the tighter market, Ghana’s LPG consumption increased by almost 11 per cent year-on-year to 96,000 tonnes in the second quarter. The growth rate, however, was considerably lower than the 24 per cent recorded in the first quarter.
Kenya also maintained growth in LPG consumption, although expansion slowed. Demand rose by nearly five per cent year-on-year to 125,000 tonnes between April and June, compared with 18 per cent growth in the first quarter.
Seaborne LPG imports into Kenya increased by 15 per cent to 53,000 tonnes per month during the first eight months of 2026. Argus linked the growth partly to the opening of Tanzanian company Lake Gas’ 10,000-tonne Vipingo LPG terminal the previous year.
Greater competition among importers helped moderate price increases. The retail price of a 13kg LPG cylinder rose by just over 11 per cent to 3,471 Kenyan shillings between March and June.
Infrastructure expansion
The supply pressures have coincided with continued investment in LPG infrastructure across sub-Saharan Africa.
Tanzanian company Taifa Gas is nearing completion of a 30,000-tonne LPG terminal at Mombasa, Kenya, which will be equipped to receive very large gas carriers.
Lake Gas is also planning to add 15,000 tonnes of storage capacity at its Vipingo facility by September 2027. Argus LPG World estimates that 10 projects could add more than 180,000 tonnes of LPG storage capacity across the region by 2028.
In Cameroon, the state-owned Société Camerounaise de Dépôts Pétroliers increased storage capacity at its Douala terminal by 1,000 tonnes during the summer, taking total capacity to 3,500 tonnes. A further 2,000-tonne storage sphere is under construction.
The company is also planning to double the terminal’s transloading capacity to 1,950 tonnes per day as part of efforts to ease supply bottlenecks.
The expansion of infrastructure is taking place alongside government efforts to increase access to LPG and promote cleaner cooking across the continent.
Nigeria launched its National Grassroots LPG Penetration Programme in July, introducing a cylinder recirculation model under which retailers are responsible for owning, tracking and refilling cylinders.
The scheme is intended to reduce the financial burden of cylinder ownership and maintenance on households. The government is targeting five million homes and annual LPG consumption of about five million tonnes by 2030.
About 54,000 cylinders had been distributed since the programme was launched, according to the report.
Ghana, which has also adopted the cylinder recirculation approach, is targeting LPG access for 50 per cent of its population by 2030.
The clean-cooking push is also extending into transport. Nigeria has exempted autogas vehicles from value-added tax, while Kenya’s Equity Bank has partnered with distributor Proto Energy to finance vehicle conversions.
