Nigeria’s crude oil grades have surged to an average of $90 per barrel as global oil prices climbed above $91 on Friday, raising the country’s daily oil earnings to about $134 million or N186.3 billion and placing the nation $36.4 million above the benchmark used in the 2026 budget.
The rally, driven largely by the escalating crisis in the Middle East and disruptions to tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, has rattled global energy markets and triggered warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) about possible shocks to the world economy.
Brent crude traded at around $92 per barrel, while some middle eastern benchmark grades approached the $100 mark, with prices hitting $99.60 per barrel.
Already Qatar’s Energy Minister, Saad al-Kaabi, has said further disruptions could push oil prices beyond $150 per barrel in the coming weeks.
This comes as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped from an average of 138 ships a day to just two, Joint Maritime Information Centre had said.
Nigeria’s 2026 budget was benchmarked on an oil price of $65 per barrel. With Nigerian grades now averaging $90, the country is currently earning roughly $25 above the benchmark, translating to about $36.4 million in additional revenue daily.
While the surge provides short-term fiscal relief for Africa’s largest oil producer, the situation could worsen domestic inflation as higher global prices translate into rising fuel costs.
Petrol prices in parts of Nigeria are already hovering around N1,000 per litre despite the commencement of domestic refining operations, including the large-scale Dangote refinery. Rising international product prices, combined with tightening global supply, are expected to sustain pressure on local fuel markets.
The IMF has cautioned that the current surge in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices could test the resilience of the global economy.
‘The world economy has been remarkably resilient. Shock after shock, and yet growth is at 3.3 per cent’, IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
According to the IMF, if global energy prices rise by just 10 per cent and remain elevated for a year, inflation could increase by 0.4 percentage points while economic growth could slow by between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points.
Georgieva said the Fund was already engaging vulnerable energy-importing countries to prepare financial support in case the crisis escalates further.
The disruption in global energy supply has been worsened by operational shutdowns across key refining hubs and export restrictions in Asia. China has reportedly halted petrol exports in order to secure domestic supplies, while several refineries in Europe and parts of Asia are scaling down operations amid supply uncertainty.
At the centre of the crisis is the near paralysis of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. Several oil tankers are reportedly currently stranded near the Strait, while insurers have withdrawn war-risk coverage for ships operating in the region following attacks on vessels and energy facilities.
Meanwhile, Kuwait has begun shutting down some oilfields due to storage constraints as exports slow, raising fears that several Middle Eastern exporters could soon declare force majeure on crude shipments if the disruption continues.
