Nigeria’s economy is reaping major rewards from the global surge in cocoa prices, with the commodity delivering unprecedented export earnings in the first quarter of 2025.
According to the H2 2025 Norrenberger Economic Outlook, Nigeria’s cocoa export receipts jumped by 220 per cent year-on-year, rising to N1.23 trillion compared with N384.1 billion in the same period of 2024.
The Norrenberger report said ‘this represents the highest quarterly cocoa export revenue ever recorded in the country, reflecting both elevated international prices and stronger export volumes’.
The development the report said further cements cocoa’s position as a strategic contributor to Nigeria’s external sector at a time when the country is working to diversify away from its dependence on oil.
The surge in Nigeria’s cocoa earnings is closely tied to market conditions that have shaken the global cocoa industry over the past 18 months.
Throughout late 2024, cocoa prices reached historic highs as supply shortages from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—the two top-producing nations—disrupted global supply chains. ‘Futures prices soared, with contracts in New York exceeding $12,000 per tonne and those in London touching $11,675 per tonne by December’, the report disclosed.
The supply shortage stemmed from multiple factors, including adverse weather patterns, the spread of cocoa swollen shoot virus (CSSV), and a marked decline in global inventories. These challenges were compounded by speculative trading, which intensified price swings and contributed to extreme volatility.
As a result, prices entered 2025 at higher levels. In January, increase in price momentum was sustained, but by March, markets corrected sharply, plunging by more than 30 percent to below $8,000 per tonne, as demand weakened in price-sensitive markets and expectations improved for the 2024/25 mid-crop harvest.
Still, by mid-June, cocoa rebounded strongly, trading between $9,000 and $9,800 per ton, with some spot prices climbing as high as $11,000 per ton. Reports suggested that at certain points, spot quotes rose to over $12,000 per ton—an 80 per cent surge compared with early 2024 levels.
By the end of June, prices had moderated to $8,101 per ton, down 26 per cent from the January peak of $10,888 per ton, yet still 20 per cent higher than the $6,776 per ton recorded during the same period of 2024.
Norrenberger noted that the record cocoa earnings have far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s economy. ‘As one of the country’s most valuable non-oil exports, cocoa provides a vital stream of foreign exchange at a time when oil revenues remain vulnerable to global price fluctuations and domestic production constraints’.
According to the analysts, ‘the revenue boost is helping Nigeria narrow its current account deficit and reduce reliance on oil-related inflows, providing a buffer against external shocks’.
The additional FX inflows are also seen as supporting the Central Bank of Nigeria’s broader efforts to stabilize the naira, which has faced persistent pressure in recent years.
Beyond the macroeconomic benefits, higher cocoa receipts are filtering into rural communities, where production is concentrated. According to the report, ‘increased earnings can stimulate rural economies, create jobs, and strengthen agricultural value chains, providing critical support for inclusive growth.
Despite the windfall, concerns remain about the long-term sustainability of Nigeria’s cocoa boom. Norrenberger has cautioned ‘that aging cocoa trees, limited financing options for farmers, and inadequate infrastructure continue to weigh on productivity’.
Unless these bottlenecks are addressed, Nigeria risks losing momentum once the current favorable price cycle ends. The report has also called for greater investment in value addition, particularly through local processing, which could further expand earnings and create industrial jobs.
Looking ahead, the global cocoa market is expected to remain volatile in the second half of 2025. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has projected a surplus of 142,000 metric tonnes for the 2024/25 season, ending four consecutive years of deficits.
The surplus is tied to an anticipated 7.8 per cent increase in global cocoa output to 4.84 million tonnes, while grindings—an indicator of demand—are expected to fall by 4.8 percent to 4.65 million tonnes, reflecting reduced consumption in key markets as high prices bite into demand.
