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Trump’s tariff and the place of AfCFTA

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If you are an African and you have read these two books: How Europe Underdeveloped Africa written by Walter Rodney; and The Wretched of the Earth authored by Frantz Fanon, you would have an entirely different perspective on world events and how they affect the continent. As a student of history and social science, I view certain developments from a different prism.

An example will suffice. The other day, I engaged in a discussion with two colleagues on the economic policy (if what we have can truly be called policy) of the Tinubu administration. My colleague lost me immediately he stated that the World Bank had endorsed the economic policy of the government. I have had cause to write about the two Brettonwood Institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, in this column. As far back as when I was a university student, I had known that these institutions were set up as pillars of imperialism to stoke the continuous subjugation of nonwestern nations. Unfortunately, many African rulers do not understand this. Few of them who do, do not think that it is worth the trouble to get the yoke from off the neck of the continent. We always go for easy way out and temporary relief.

The tariff war the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, has unleashed on the world should be viewed by all well meaning Africans from this perspective. Forget about the 90 days moratorium, forget about the the current confusion in Trump’s camp, forget about the spat between the United States and China. China has enough muscles to stand up to the US; but not so for Africa. Other western nations will do their utmost to defend themselves and even come out stronger; but not so for Africa. The continent is too weak to defend itself against the economic onslaught that the tariff war will cause. If we leave everything to chance, the poverty situation on the continent will worsen; and that with attendant consequences.

Unbeknownst to us Africans, as much of the discussions on the tariff issue are focused on how it might destroy the American economy (which it will not), no one is looking at its impact on the continent. Even if the American economy tanks or even goes into recession, it has all the potentials to rave back fast. No matter the damaging effects of the crisis, give the American economy a maximum of a year to recover and grow. The same cannot be said of the economy of Africa.

It should matter more to us what the implications of the tariff crisis will be for weak economies such as Africa’s. How should Africa respond to the crisis and even take advantage of. For all intents and purposes, the American tariff policy is bad through and through. But we can flip the coin by seeing the tariff war as an opportunity to liberate the continent from the stranglehold of the West. Rather than dwell on self pity and fear of what lies ahead, the situation should reset the mindset of the leaders of the continent to do things differently.

As things stand, Africa still remains the only continent that exports virtually all its goods in their raw state and imports nearly 100 percent of items in their finished state. Which makes it very bitting to imagine the effects of the blanket tariffs imposed by the United States. Africa’s balance of trade is almost always in the negative territory which also leads to borrow under pressure and unfavourable terms.

Thankfully, our current continental leaders do not need to reinvent the wheel to deal with the ongoing crisis. There is a ready solution waiting to be deployed to insulate the continent and its people from the troubles that lie ahead. The weapon is homegrown and its name is: the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (now Area), AfCFTA. Improved trading among and between African countries is the single most important part of the solution to the dependency problem of the continent on the western world. This is long overdue. AfCFTA is the weapon to unleash the great potentials of the African continent. All that is required is the political will of the continent’s leaders to implement the terms of the Agreement. In fact the times we are in recommend that the timelines of the agreement should be brought forward.

Below is an online excerpt on AfCFTA:

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a free trade area encompassing most of Africa. It was established in 2018 by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, which has 43 parties and another 11 signatories, making it the largest free trade area by number of member states, after the World Trade Organization, and the largest in population and geographic size, spanning 1.3 billion people.

The agreement founding AfCFTA was brokered by the African Union (AU) and signed by 44 of its 55 member states in Kigali, Rwanda on March 21, 2018. The proposal was set to come into force 30 days after ratification by 22 of the signatory states. On April 29, 2019, the Sahrawi Republic made the 22nd deposit of instruments of ratification, bringing the agreement into force on May 30; it entered its operational phase following a summit on July 7, 2019, and officially commenced January 1, 2021. AfCFTA’s negotiations and implementation are overseen by a permanent secretariat based in Accra, Ghana.

Under the agreement, AfCFTA members are committed to eliminating tariffs on most goods and services over a period of 5, 10, or 13 years, depending on the country’s level of development or the nature of the products.

General long-term objectives include creating a single, liberalized market; reducing barriers to capital and labor to facilitate investment; developing regional infrastructure; and establishing a continental customs union. The overall aims of AfCFTA are to increase socioeconomic development, reduce poverty, and make Africa more competitive in the global economy. On January 13, 2022, AfCFTA took a major step towards its objective with the establishment of Pan-African Payment and Settlement System the (PAPSS) which allows payments among companies operating in Africa to be done in any local currency.

In April 2024, the AU announced that AfCFTA entered into the operational phase of the agreement. The operational phase, which effectively puts the agreement into force, is characterized by the following actions:

* Establishment of the rules of origin, which will govern the conditions under which a product or service can be traded duty free;

*Tariff concessions, 90% tariff liberalisation;

* Online mechanism, allows members to report non-tariff barriers;

* Pan-African payment and settlement system, allows certainty of payments and instill confidence in the system

* African Trade Observatory, a portal to address hindrances to trade, will be provided by AU member states.

In my view, these are bold steps compared to what obtained between the 1960s and 1980s when most African countries regained independence. Just this week, Nigeria announced that it had gazetted and transmitted its schedule of tariff offers for goods traded in Africa to AfCFTA secretariat. This means that the country will grant preferential tariff treatment to eligible goods upon importation, in line with its commitments under the AfCFTA agreement.

This effectively establishes zero duties on 90 percent of goods traded within Africa. This is quite commendable even if delayed as the country is now the 23rd AfCFTA state to do so. Other countries still waiting in the wings need to jump in before Trump’s tariffs bite hard.

Though intracontinental trading is the most important step toward a prosperous Africa, it cannot achieve much on its own. Many other factors must come into play for the continent to reap the benefits of the free trade.

Here are some of the steps that need to be taken immediately:
1. Abolish visas for all citizens of the continent
2. Have direct flights from and to all African countries
3. Make national currencies easily convertible
4. Embrace local technologies

The continent needs to borrow from the European Union and dismantle its colonial walls which impede development. It does not make sense that I have to first fly from Lagos or Accra to a European city in order to get to any African country because there no direct flights from one country to another. We need to promote intraAfrican tourism and travels.

I was elated to learn that Niger has adopted Hausa as its official language instead of French. More of such should come. The era of looking for foreign investors to come and ‘develop’ the continent is over. They never did; they never will. The destiny of Africa is in the hands of Africans.

SHORT TAKE:

PLATEAU AS A KILLING FIELD

Two weeks ago, I scribbled on the Uromi 16! Today it’s about the killings on the Plateau. I pray and hope it will not be a recurring decimal. Officially, Nigeria is not at war but more citizens have been killed by state and non-state actors than in some countries that are at war. This is due to the politicization of the killings, the incompetence of the security services, the corruption within the security community, the reluctance of those responsible for protecting the people to do their work and a combination of all of these.

The latest killings that occurred yesterday took a new twist as the Commander in Chief asked the governor of the state, who officially cannot arm anyone with a catapult, to end the decades-old security situation in the state. This is very troubling.

Esiere is a former journalist!

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