Although the February 20, 2027 presidential election is exactly 715 days away, the polity is already aflutter with posturing and permutations.
Potential aspirants and their foot soldiers are already consulting and networking in search of votes-delivering alignments and re-alignments.
Mid-last month, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, said the North would back President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 and return to power in 2031 in accordance with the North-South power rotation principle.
Minister of State for Defence and former Governor of Zamfara State, Dr.Bello Matawalle, echoed the same views, stressing that the North would rally round Tinubu to continue his developmental projects across the country till 2031.
The comments of Ganduje and Mattawalle are eliciting mixed views from Northern leaders at a time sources said that President Tinubu is wooing South-East and South-South leaders to shore up his votes in 2031.
As it is, the APC 2027 presidential ticket can be considered to be in Tinubu’s kitty unless he declines to run.
According to the constitution, to win a second term, he needs to win a majority of votes and achieve one-quarter of votes cast in at least two-thirds of the nation’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
In the 2023 election, President Tinubu lost in Lagos, Osun and FCT, Abuja. He did not get 25 per cent of votes cast in Abuja, which was a major ground his opponents cited at the courts to invalidate his election.
Although Tinubu hails from the South, he did not get the majority of southern votes. He won his native South-West but lost South-South and South-East. Indeed, his worst performance was in the South-East where he scored a miserly 127,605 votes or 5.8 per cent of the 2,187,599 valid votes cast.
However, Tinubu, who ran on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, APC, won three of the nation’s six zones, North-West, South-West and North-Central of which he got his highest votes in North-West.
Tinubu’s main challengers were Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP; Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP; and Dr Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP.
To make a better impact in the two zones in 2027, sources said President Tinubu is reaching out to leaders of South-East and South-South including governors.
One of the sources said apart from executing projects in the two zones, an arrangement for opposition governors to retain their positions in exchange for backing Tinubu’s re-election is being hammered out.
If concretised, the arrangement could make it easy for Professor Charles Soludo (Anambra) of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA; Dr Peter Mbah (Enugu), PDP; Pastor Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), PDP; PDP in Bayelsa; and Sheriff Oborevwhori (PDP), Delta to retain their governorship seats while Tinubu would garner his required number of votes for the Presidential election in these states. Those who would like to defect to the APC would be allowed to do so easily.
Ganduje, while hosting leaders and members of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Media Centre, PBAT Media Centre, and Tinubu Northern Youth Forum, TNYF, at APC National Secretariat in Abuja, said expectations that the North would produce the President in 2027 should be “perished.”
“When a leader from the northern part of this country was in office for eight years, we advocated that the next president in our party should come from the South”, he stated.
“And luckily enough, we worked very hard with the cooperation of Nigerians. Our President has come from the South and is going, insha’Allah, for a second term in 2027. And then after that, it will be turned to the northern part of this country.”
In like manner, Dr.Matawalle dismissed comments made by Dr. Babachir Lawal concerning President Tinubu’s 2027 presidential ambitions.
In a statement, Matawalle said: “President Bola Tinubu, who has been in office for just 19 months, has made significant contributions to all regions of Nigeria, including the North. The people of the North will rally behind Mr. President to build upon the achievements and reforms he has initiated.”
Former National Vice Chairman, North West, of the APC, Salihu Moh. Lukman chided Ganduje for asking Northerners with presidential ambition to shelve the idea in 2027 and allow President Tinubu have a smooth sail for a second term.
Lukman, a former Director General of the Progressive Governors Forum, PGF, who has now ditched the APC said Ganduje had betrayed his credentials and sounding like a street hawker.
He said: “He is talking almost like a street hawker, betrays knowledge. The mere fact that you are going to have an election confirms that there is a vacancy and for Nigerians, the constitution gives everybody the right to contest and a party, if they want to show their sophistication, is to facilitate internal negotiations so that it produces an agreement.
“The chairman cannot just wake up and announce his sentiments as if that is the end. But between you and I, my position about the last APC NEC meeting and the Caucus meeting, it was almost like a meeting of the monarchs. They had made up their minds on what they wanted and just came to the meeting to ratify it and announce it to the public, and everybody, for whatever reason, members of the organs were not able to express themselves.
“That is not the kind of democracy we are looking for. We are looking for a more robust democracy that can accommodate dissenting opinions and through which negotiations are really taking place.”
However, Abdul-Azeez Suleiman Director, NGOs/SCOs Northern Elders Forum, said: “As a Northern leader, I know that in Nigeria, regional affiliations have historically played a significant role in shaping the governance and leadership of the nation. However, the recent experiences of Northern Nigeria under the presidency of Muhammadu Buhari compel us to reevaluate the importance of regional loyalty in political decision-making. The eight years of Buhari’s presidency, characterized by unmet expectations and escalating challenges, have led the North to question the wisdom of prioritizing regional identity over competence in selecting our leaders.
“It is time for Northern Nigeria to transcend the confines of ethnic and regional politics and embrace a more meritocratic approach to governance.
“For many in Northern Nigeria, the election of Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 was seen as a beacon of hope. He was viewed as a leader who would address the region’s longstanding issues, including poverty, insecurity, and infrastructural decay. The North placed absolute trust in Buhari, believing that his military background and experience would translate into effective governance. However, as the years unfolded, it became painfully clear that this trust was misplaced. Rather than witnessing the promised transformation, the region
experienced a deterioration of security, economic hardship, and a growing sense of disillusionment.
“The rise in insurgency, banditry, and communal clashes during Buhari’s tenure starkly illustrated that regional affiliation does not guarantee effective leadership. The north, which had hoped for a leader who would champion its interests, found itself grappling with increased violence and instability. The once-cherished notion that a president from the north would be more attuned to the region’s needs proved to be a fallacy. This experience underscores a critical lesson: the geographical origin of a leader should not overshadow their ability to govern effectively.
