Professor of Criminology at the University of Alberta, Canada, Tope Oriola, has blamed corruption, intelligence leaks, poor welfare for military personnel and the failure to deploy modern technology for the prolonged insurgency and banditry crisis in Nigeria.
Oriola, a researcher who has conducted extensive studies on insurgency in Nigeria and the wider Sahel region, said a lack of political will and the marginalisation of expert advice had also undermined efforts to defeat Boko Haram and other armed groups.
Speaking on Deep Insight with Agbonsuremi, a podcast hosted by veteran journalist Augustine Okhiria Agbonsuremi, the criminologist gave a critical assessment of Nigeria’s 15-year battle against terrorism and banditry.
He said Nigeria could make significant progress in defeating the insurgency within two to five years if the government demonstrated sustained political commitment, tackled corruption and adopted intelligence-led, technology-driven security operations.
Oriola alleged that some commissioned officers and senior figures within the military had, at various times, leaked or sold actionable intelligence to Boko Haram, resulting in attacks on military positions and the seizure of weapons and equipment.
He also alleged that the insurgents had offered substantial sums for sensitive information, particularly during the period between 2010 and 2015.
Inequality creates conditions for insecurity
Oriola argued that poverty alone did not explain the persistence of terrorism and violent crime, pointing instead to deep-rooted social inequality and the failure of the state to provide basic services and opportunities.
“Poverty in and of itself does not cause crime. A huge part of what contributes to the enterprise of crime and terrorism is embedded and metastasised social inequality,” he said.
According to him, years of inadequate government presence had created spaces that non-state actors were able to occupy, particularly in rural communities.
He said the targeting of rural areas by terrorists and bandits was deliberate, rather than simply a consequence of geography.
“A lot of these attacks are occurring in rural spaces, whether that is in Oyo State or Borno State. These are not accidents of geography,” he said.
He noted that the absence of police, emergency medical services, electricity and other basic infrastructure had made government largely invisible in some communities.
“When you lack such visible presence, even at a performative level in communities, it is an invitation to chaos,” Oriola said.
Bandits, terrorists increasingly cooperating
The criminologist said the traditional distinction between bandits and terrorists was becoming less useful as the two categories of armed groups increasingly collaborated.
“The distinction now between bandits and terrorists is purely academic. In reality, there has been a convergence and confluence of interests and groups,” he said.
Although the groups might have different ideological motivations, Oriola said they increasingly cooperated in areas including weapons supply, training, intelligence and hostage management.
He said there had been instances since at least 2021 in which bandits and Boko Haram-affiliated groups worked together to carry out attacks.
Describing the relationship as “symbiotic”, he said some bandit groups lacked the capacity to hold large numbers of kidnapped victims for extended periods, while terrorist organisations had developed such capabilities.
He stressed that the cooperation was largely driven by operational interests rather than shared ideology.
“Bandit groups don’t necessarily think of spreading Sharia law to any region of a country. That’s for the Islamist-linked groups. But in terms of operational cooperation, provision of weapons, tactical acumen and exchanges, there is a huge level of cooperation going on,” he said.
Spread to South-West was predictable
Oriola said the spread of violent insecurity from the North-East and North-West into parts of the South-West should have been anticipated.
He attributed the expansion partly to the porous nature of Nigeria’s internal borders and the ease with which people, weapons and goods move between regions.
“It was always a matter of time. These things never get contained somewhere, especially with the fluidity and porosity of the borders,” he said.
He warned that without decisive intervention, the violence could spread further into the South-South and South-East, potentially threatening economically strategic areas.
Political interference and intelligence leaks
Oriola also raised concerns about political interference in the military and alleged weaknesses within the intelligence system.
He said his research had revealed concerns among serving military personnel about the possibility of sensitive information being leaked by colleagues.
According to him, some of the alleged leaks originated from commissioned officers.
He linked some of the problems to political tensions surrounding the 2015 presidential election, when, he alleged, some senior military officers openly identified with rival political parties.
Oriola said such political involvement could create a perception among military personnel that remaining politically neutral might have consequences for their careers.
He further alleged that Boko Haram had offered up to $10,000 for actionable intelligence during the period.
He said access to sensitive information had, in some cases, enabled insurgents to launch attacks on military formations after the deployment of weapons and equipment.
Poor welfare demoralising troops
The professor also identified inadequate welfare for military personnel and their families as another vulnerability in Nigeria’s counter-insurgency efforts.
He argued that soldiers risking their lives in combat needed confidence that their families would be properly supported if they died in service.
Oriola alleged that there had been cases in which the families of fallen soldiers were evicted from military accommodation or experienced interruptions to salaries and benefits after the death of the family breadwinner.
“What message are we sending to the troops at the war theatre about what might happen to their children and their wives if a similar thing happens?” he asked.
He said such practices could undermine the morale of soldiers fighting in difficult conditions.
However, Oriola stressed that many Nigerian troops remained committed to defending the country.
“There are very gallant officers and soldiers to this day who are willing and ready to lay down their lives for the country. The question is: are we making it worth their while?” he said.
Technology, intelligence needed
Oriola rejected the argument that a lack of funding was Nigeria’s primary obstacle in the fight against insurgency, noting that substantial sums had already been spent on security operations, weapons and military equipment.
Instead, he identified poor coordination, politicisation and declining patriotism as major concerns.
“Coordination has been a big issue, but also sagging patriotism,” he said.
He called for security commanders and personnel to be appointed on the basis of competence rather than political considerations.
The criminologist also advocated greater use of surveillance and intelligence technology, including drones, heat sensors and other systems capable of detecting suspicious movements and tracking insurgents.
Rather than deploying large numbers of troops indiscriminately, he said Nigeria should rely more heavily on intelligence-led operations involving specialised forces.
“We will be working with much smaller teams. I would be dealing more with Special Forces, and this would be technologically driven, intelligence-driven,” he said.
He also called for a stronger framework for rewarding credible information supplied by members of the public, alongside protection for whistleblowers and their families.
‘Boko Haram has metastasised’
Asked to describe the current state of Boko Haram, Oriola said the insurgency had evolved considerably from its original structure.
“Boko Haram has metastasised. It is no longer contained to a single battlefield. It is no longer a single entity,” he said.
He alleged that the insurgency had benefited from support within some sections of Nigeria’s political and military establishment, arguing that defeating it would require more sophisticated and coordinated strategies.
Despite his assessment, Oriola said Nigeria could regain control of areas affected by terrorism within two to five years if appropriate measures were implemented.
He acknowledged that a two-year timeframe might be optimistic but said five years was a realistic target if progress became visible within the first year.
Military action alone will not end crisis
Oriola said military operations would not, on their own, resolve Nigeria’s security crisis.
He called for broader social and economic reforms to address the conditions that make vulnerable communities susceptible to recruitment by armed groups.
According to him, some people had joined insurgent groups because of poverty, limited opportunities and the absence of attractive alternatives.
He cited cases involving women and children rescued from Boko Haram who later returned to insurgent-controlled areas because they perceived their prospects there as better than those available in mainstream society.
“We need to create that society that people will choose over going to Boko Haram in their camp in Sambisa Forest,” he said.
Citizens must support security efforts
The professor also urged Nigerians to take a more active role in preventing insecurity instead of viewing security solely as the responsibility of government.
He described the belief that security was exclusively a government responsibility as a major misconception.
Oriola encouraged citizens to report suspicious activities in their communities, arguing that information from members of the public was vital to crime prevention.
He said Nigeria needed to develop a stronger culture of community reporting while ensuring that people who provided intelligence were adequately protected.
‘Don’t let terrorists win’
Despite the country’s security challenges, Oriola urged Nigerians not to lose hope or allow terrorism to undermine education.
He particularly appealed to parents in communities affected by conflict to continue educating their children whenever it was safe to do so.
“We must not let them win, and we must take education as the first and most significant heritage that we can give to our children,” he said.
Oriola concluded that defeating terrorism would require cooperation between the government, security agencies, communities and citizens, supported by effective intelligence, modern technology, competent leadership and sustained social and economic reforms.
