Nigeria has recorded a historic shift in its downstream petroleum trade, emerging as a net exporter of gasoline for the first time in March, largely driven by increased output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals.
Meanwhile, Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is advancing plans to list his Lagos-based multi-billion-dollar oil refinery across several stock exchanges in Africa, in what could become the continent’s first pan-African public offering.
Data from market intelligence firm, Kpler, showed that gasoline imports into the country dropped sharply to 41,000 barrels per day (b/d) during the month, the lowest level on record.
At the same time, crude supply to the Dangote facility rose to about 565,000 b/d, the second-highest intake since the 650,000 b/d refinery commenced operations in late 2023, indicating sustained processing activity and higher product output.
Total gasoline exports from the refinery rose to 44,000 b/d in March, compared to no exports recorded in January and February. The development enabled Nigeria to post a net export position of approximately 3,000 b/d for the month.
In expanding its market reach, the refinery exported gasoline to East Africa for the first time, shipping a 317,000-barrel cargo to Mozambique.
Another shipment scheduled for April is also to Beira, Mozambique.
The development comes as Nigeria continues to adjust its downstream market structure amid rising domestic refining capacity and declining import dependence.
Nigeria’s emergence as a gasoline exporter is expected to influence regional supply patterns, particularly in East Africa, where demand for alternative sources of supply has increased amid disruptions in global trade routes.
Dangote refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 b/d, has gradually ramped up operations since commencing production in late 2023.
President/Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, recently described President Bola Tinubu’s economic and energy sector reforms as critical to restoring market confidence and encouraging large-scale investment in domestic refining.
The proposed listing, expected to span multiple African bourses simultaneously, is aimed at broadening ownership of the refinery and deepening integration within Africa’s fragmented capital markets.
The development was disclosed by the Chief Executive Officer of the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Frank Mwiti, following a closed-door meeting in Lagos involving Dangote and heads of various African stock exchanges.
Mwiti said discussions focused on structuring a ‘pan-African IPO’, noting that the share sale could be executed across multiple jurisdictions simultaneously.
According to him, the arrangement would allow investors in different African countries to buy into the refinery through their local exchanges, a move analysts said could significantly reshape cross-border investment flows across the continent.
An email from FirstCap CEO Ukandu showed that Dangote designated Stanbic IBTC Capital, Vetiva Advisory Services and FirstCap to provide advice on the IPO for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.
Earlier this month, Dangote also held talks with the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) and the African Securities Exchanges Association to explore regulatory coordination and frameworks that would support cross-border investor participation.
While enthusiasm is building within Africa’s financial sector, analysts caution that the success of the proposed multi-exchange IPO will depend heavily on regulatory harmonisation, currency stability, and investor confidence in the refinery’s long-term profitability.
