The political atmosphere is tense across Osun State as voters head to the polls today to elect a governor in an election featuring 15 political parties.
The contest is being closely watched as incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke seeks a second term on the platform of the Accord Party, having won his first term four years ago as the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Adeleke’s move to the Accord Party has altered the political calculations in the state, with questions over whether his support base will remain united or be divided among the leading contenders.
His main challengers include Otunba Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Rt Hon Najeem Salaam, who is contesting on the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Adeleke is campaigning largely on his administration’s record, highlighting projects and programmes implemented during his first term, while also appealing to voters through his name recognition. His campaign has repeatedly called for a peaceful and credible election.
Oyebamiji, meanwhile, is relying on the APC’s established political machinery and its presence at the grassroots. The party also hopes to benefit from the absence of the PDP from the ballot and is expected to focus strongly on areas such as Ife, Osogbo and the Ijesa axis.
Salaam is seeking to position the ADC as an alternative to the two leading parties. His experience as Speaker from 2011 to 2015, combined with the choice of Mrs Yemisi Agiri as his running mate, could help the party appeal to a wider range of voters, including women.
For voters, however, the major concerns extend beyond party politics. Employment, education, healthcare and security remain prominent issues, with youth organisations and market associations organising town-hall meetings and other engagements ahead of the poll.
Civil society organisations have also stepped up voter education and campaigns for peaceful participation, while encouraging eligible voters to collect their Permanent Voter Cards and exercise their franchise.
Security is another major issue surrounding the election. The Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Disu, has met with Governor Adeleke and political party leaders as part of efforts to prevent violence and ensure a peaceful poll.
Security agencies, including the Nigeria Police Force, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, Department of State Services and the Osun State Security Network Agency, known as Amotekun, are expected to be deployed across the state’s 30 local government areas.
Election observers, including Yiaga Africa, the Transition Monitoring Group and the Centre for Democracy and Development, are also expected to monitor the exercise. Their attention is likely to include possible vote-buying, the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the uploading of results through the Independent National Electoral Commission’s Result Viewing Portal.
The efficiency of INEC’s logistics will also be closely scrutinised, particularly the timely delivery of election materials, the functionality of BVAS devices and the prompt transmission of results.
The election is shaping up less as a contest of ideology than a test of competing political strengths: Adeleke’s incumbency and record in office against the APC’s organisational structure, while the ADC and other parties seek to establish themselves as a credible third force.
Osun has a history of closely fought and unpredictable governorship elections. Although 15 parties are on the ballot, the race is widely viewed as being dominated by the contest between Adeleke and Oyebamiji.
The outcome will therefore provide a significant test of whether incumbency, political machinery or the appeal of an alternative platform will ultimately determine who governs Osun for the next four years.
